After avoiding any dovish surprises coming from the FOMC meeting results, the Dollar has been ableto consolidate recent gains and has taken out yesterday’s post-meeting highs during overnight trading. The Fedmade little change to their current policy stance, surprising some in the market who felt that the US governmentshutdown would have more of an negative impact on their outlook, which has helped the Dollar continue to liftclear of last Friday’s low for the move. US economic data remains a problem area for the Dollar after yesterday’sADP survey miss, which will place even more focus on this morning’s Initial Jobless Claim reading as it may needto fall sharply below its recent 350,000-plus range in order to sustain this week’s Dollar recovery. A 2014 Fedtapering move may already be “priced-in” to the market, but the Dollar still needs to string together positive USdata results in order to maintain upside momentum. The Dollar may climb up towards the 80.16 level later thismorning with positive Jobless Claims results, but will have limited upside potential as long as any Fed taperingcontinues to be well into the future. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of October 15thfor US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 932 contracts, an increase of 1,312 contracts whichrepresents a change from a net short to net long position. The Commercial traders were net short 5,363 contracts,an increase of 1,332 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 4,432 contracts, an increase of 21contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 5,364 contracts. Thisrepresents an increase of 1,333 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook
USD (DEC): Daily momentum studies are on the rise from low levels and should accelerate amove higher on a push through the 1st swing resistance. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the closeabove the 9-day moving average. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Thenext upside objective is 80.24. The next area of resistance is around 80.01 and 80.24, while 1st support hits todayat 79.53 and below there at 79.26.