EURUSD
Topside: 1.3740
Downside: 1.3680/90
Opens up right on the support/break up zone at 1.3690-1.37. Lasts night fed said ntg new but seemed to left open chances of tapering sooner than march if the data allows. While unlikely this less dovish outcome led to a raft of cutting and lev/spec selling pushing us to a low at 1.3688 in asia. This 1.3680/90 area key if we are to maintain the recent upward momentum, a break below here would suggest further weakness back into the 1.35-1.37 range. Topside 1.3740 has capped rallies on the bounce so we look to that as the first resistance.
GBPUSD
Topside: 1.6085, 1.6115/19
Downside: 1.6020/30, 1.5940
Holding around 1.6020/30 trend support for the time being, and having closed above in NYC last night, I am holding onto the notion that we are close to the end of the correction. Price action post the Fed is concerning however, and I intend to keep a tight leash on positions. Some other support should be found at 1.5940, and sellers will be waiting to lighten their longs around yesterdays high at 1.6085 and then at the 1.6115/19 pivot. Immediately after the FOMC, we noted broad based HF demand for the USD, though these flows were focused on EURUSD in the main.
EURGBP
Topside: 0.8585, 0.8652
Downside: 0.8539, 0.8519
Peaked at .8585 on Wednesday and is now showing some signs of consolidation, post a 1.5pcnt rally since the beginning of last week. I am square in EURGBP, but intend to enter into a new short position if strength into the .8585 – .8650 region develops in the days ahead. To the downside, expect some support between .8519 and .8539, with any close below that band, shifting near term risks to the downside. Client flows have been light in EURGBP in recent sessions, though we have noted some sellers towards .8585 resistance.
JPY
Topside: 98.60
Downside: 97.90/98.00, 97.55
Ntg new from the BOJ has hit the Nikkei and also seen usdjpy drift back off the highs at 98.57 as we seen some Japanese and lev sellers. Models however are soaking up demand on the mini dip after chasing the move higher from yesterday. Right now support is 97.90/98.00 before 97.55 below – topside 98.60 will remain pivot. Continue to like a long bias but think 99.00/50 will be a tough nut to crack with exporter and retail names looking to sell.
AUD/NZD
AUD
Topside: 0.9516, 0.9550
Downside: 0.9442, 0.9435, 0.9406
NZD
Topside: 0.8272, 0.8285, 0.8332
Downside:0.8180, 0.8162
The FOMC results exposed market position, (one of short USD risk reward) and the ensuing USD buying took out a lot participants. Since then we have had RBNZ, which saw created some more short term volatility but we have since settled back to where we were yesterday afternoon in London. The summary: A slightly more bullish tone on the general economy but more dovish on rate hike expectations and continued concerns over the strength of the Kiwi. OZ sept building approvals beat expectations by a healthy margin and saw AUD/USD back above 0.9500, having traded down to 0.9442 post FOMC. I continue to like AUD/NZD higher towards 1.1600. Levels: NZD/USD 0.8180’s (big support for a number of reasons), with 0.8162 below that. Res 0.8272/0.82850 and 0.8332. AUD/USD supp 0.9442, 0.9435 and 0.9406. Res 0.9516, 0.9550.
CAD
Topside: 1.0497, 1.0524
Downside: 1.0462, 1.0440, 1.0421
USD/CAD more orderly and has broken topside trend line resistance, now acting as support at 1.0462. Overall, positioning a lot lighter, Month end flows may have an impact later. I continue to like CAD lower. USDCAD 1.0462, 1.0440 and 1.0421. Res 1.0497 and 1.0524.
Skandies
EUR/NOK probes the lower end of the range after yesterday’s net stronger data. 8.0730 and 8.0500 are the levels to watch and would expect stops below the later. 8.1000 and 8.1600 upper resistance now. EUR/SEK conversely is checking out topside levels as NOK/SEK buyers take control. EUR/SEK 8.8250 is the level to watch above. NOK/SEK back above 1.0860, with 1.0890 the next test. Above there signals further gains towards 1.1000. No significant data today but PMI’s tomorrow will get some attention
Barclays