While this morning’s early pressure was relatively modest, it has been more than enough to keep theDollar close to unchanged levels as the market is still showing little ability to make a large-scale recovery from afourth new low for the move in as many sessions. Recent US data has provided few highlights for the Dollar tofind support from, as Tuesday’s sluggish Payroll numbers likely insured that Fed tapering will not get back “on thetable” until well into 2014 at the earliest. End-of-week short-covering could help the Dollar extend this rebound,but will require that today’s Durable Goods and Consumer Sentiment readings avoid any negative surprises. Withsafe-haven support limited at best, the Dollar needs to find strength at home in order to firmly pull the brakes onthis longer-term selloff. The Dollar may climb up towards the 79.42 level later today with “good” US data points,but will still need plenty of help from upcoming US economic numbers and from Fed commentary in order todecisively lift clear of these recent lows.
Technical Outlook
USD (DEC): The market broke to a new contract low. Momentum studies are still bearish butare now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market’s close below the 9-daymoving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The market tilt is slightly negative with theclose under the pivot. The next downside target is now at 79.01. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI isapproaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance is around 79.36 and 79.48, while 1st support hits todayat 79.13 and below there at 79.01.