AUD/USD touched fresh 5 month highs with the mover higher spiking above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and falling just short of the 200-DMA despite very overbought daily tech studies. Initial support is noted at the $0.9679 level that capped recently and we will now look for a close back below the $0.9604 support to relieve the immediate bullish focus. Oscillation around the rising 21 day upper Bollinger is expected until $0.9604 gives way.
R 4: $0.9920 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement $1.0582-0.8850
R 3: $0.9839 – High May 21
R 2: $0.9791 – Monthly high June 3
R 1: $0.9754 – 200 day moving average
Latest price: $0.9709
S 1: $0.9679 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: $0.9644 – Low Oct 21
S 3: $0.9604 – Hourly support Oct 18
S 4: $0.9568 – Previous hourly resistance now support
NZD/USD has reignited bullish momentum following the move higher to fresh 6 month highs overnight with the focus on a continuation higher that targets the 2013 high. Back below yesterday’s low is needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus while back below the 21-DMA is now needed to shift the immediate focus back to the layers of support in the $0.8159-0.8233 region. Daily tech studies remain in overbought territory.
R 4: $0.8840 – 2011 High Aug 1
R 3: $0.8676 – 2013 High Apr 11
R 2: $0.8582 – Monthly high May 1
R 1: $0.8555 – High May 6
Latest price: $0.8512
S 1: $0.8437 – Low Oct 22
S 2: $0.8398 – Hourly support Oct 16
S 3: $0.8345 – 21 day moving average
S 4: $0.8233 – Low Oct 10
AUD/NZD remains capped ahead of the NZ$1.1443-77 resistance region and the relatively flat 21 day upper Bollinger band (NZ$1.1442). The NZ$1.1477 level remains key to further topside for the pair with a close above needed to shift the overall focus to tests of the NZ$1.1658 Sept monthly high. While the NZ$1.1477 level caps potential remains for further tests of the NZ$1.1302 support with a break below currently remaining favoured.
R 4: NZ$1.1579 – High Sept 6
R 3: NZ$1.1540 – 100 day moving average
R 2: NZ$1.1477 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 1: NZ$1.1443 – High Oct 21
Latest price: NZ$1.1397
S 1: NZ$1.1345 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
S 2: NZ$1.1302 – Low Oct 14
S 3: NZ$1.1261 – Low Oct 3
S 4: NZ$1.1215 – Monthly low Oct 20 & 30
AUD/JPY: Following Monday’s close above the 200-DMA the pair has extended its gains, spiking above the sharply rising 21 day upper Bollinger band (Y95.33) and falling just short of the 50% Fibonacci level. The 200-DMA is now noted as initial support and we continue to look for a close below the Oct 18 low to confirm a false break of the 200-DMA and ease the current bullish focus that is targeting the Y99.48 level overall.
R 4: Y98.17 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Y105.42-Y86.43
R 3: Y97.93 – High May 30
R 2: Y96.02 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 1: Y95.93 – 50% Fibonacci retracement Y105.42-Y86.43
Latest price: Y95.26
S 1: Y94.74 – 200 day moving average
S 2: Y94.15 – Low Oct 18
S 3: Y93.70 – Hourly support Oct 16
S 4: Y93.29 – Low Oct 15
EUR/AUD has bounced a little from recent lows but remains capped ahead of initial resistance as oversold daily tech studies begin to correct. A close back above the A$1.4236 level remains needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus, while back above the A$1.4384 Oct 14 high is needed to confirm a break of the 21 and 100-DMA’s, shifting focus back to tests of the key A$1.4558 resistance level.
R 4: A$1.4465 – High Oct 7
R 3: A$1.4384 – High Oct 14
R 2: A$1.4275 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 1: A$1.4236 – High Oct 17
Latest price: A$1.4184
S 1: A$1.3956 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2222-1.5028
S 2: A$1.3874 – Monthly low July 10
S 3: A$1.3802 – Low June 7
S 4: A$1.3625 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2222-1.5028
USD/KRW has broken lower with a test of the falling daily channel base remaining targeted with this level now coming in below the 2013 low. A close above the 21-DMA is now needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while back above the Krw1081.1 level is needed to see focus shift higher to layers of resistance in the Krw1091.1-1095.0 region including the falling daily channel top and 55-DMA. Daily tech studies remain in oversold territory
R 4: Krw1091.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: Krw1081.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1071.6 – 21 day moving average
R 1: Krw1069.3 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: Krw1058.2
S 1: Krw1057.9 – Low Oct 22
S 2: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
S 3: Krw1052.2 – Falling daily channel base
S 4: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
USD/SGD: The move to fresh 5 month lows has seen the pair close marginally below the falling 21 day lower Bollinger band and remain heavy with oscillation around the lower Bolli to continue. A close back above the Sgd1.2464 level remains needed to relieve the bearish focus that is currently targeting a test of the May monthly low. Overall a close above the Sgd1.2541 level is needed to confirm a break of the 200-DMA.
R 4: Sgd1.2496 – High Oct 11
R 3: Sgd1.2476 – 21 day moving average
R 2: Sgd1.2464 – High Oct 16
R 1: Sgd1.2434 – High Oct 22
Latest price: Sgd1.2352
S 1: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10
S 2: Sgd1.2268 – Monthly low May 9
S 3: Sgd1.2224 – Low Jan 10
S 4: Sgd1.2198 – 2013 Low Jan 2
