AUD/USD marginally traded at fresh 5 month highs yesterday before consolidating as the rising 21 day upper Bollinger band ($0.9656) caught up following the recent daily closes well above. Overbought daily tech studies could be an issue for the immediate continuation higher but we will look for a move below the $0.9568 level to relieve the immediate bullish focus and hint at a correction back towards the $0.9390 Oct 7 low.
R 4: $0.9791 – Monthly high June 3
R 3: $0.9758 – 200 day moving average
R 2: $0.9716 – 50% Fibonacci retracement $1.0582-0.8850
R 1: $0.9678 – High Oct 21
Latest price: $0.9652
S 1: $0.9644 – Low Oct 21
S 2: $0.9604 – Hourly support Oct 18
S 3: $0.9568 – Previous hourly resistance now support
S 4: $0.9477 – Hourly support Oct 15
Following last week’s move to fresh 5 month highs the NZD/USD has struggled to make any topside headway and with daily tech studies looking to correct from overbought levels we may be due for a correction back towards the $0.8339-47 region. Below the 21-DMA is needed to hint at a deeper correction that targets layers of support in the $0.8159-0.8233 region. Topside the pair needs to close above the Oct 17 high to kick start bullish momentum.
R 4: $0.8676 – 2013 High Apr 11
R 3: $0.8582 – Monthly high May 1
R 2: $0.8555 – High May 6
R 1: $0.8524 – High Oct 17
Latest price: $0.8453
S 1: $0.8398 – Hourly support Oct 16
S 2: $0.8347 – Hourly support Oct 14
S 3: $0.8339 – 21 day moving average
S 4: $0.8233 – Low Oct 10
AUD/NZD traded marginally above the previous NZ$1.1439 resistance level overnight before dipping a little. The NZ$1.1477 level remains key to further topside for the pair with a close above needed to shift the overall focus to tests of the NZ$1.1658 Sept monthly high. While the NZ$1.1477 level caps potential remains for further tests of the NZ$1.1302 support with a break below currently remaining favoured although looking a little less likely.
R 4: NZ$1.1579 – High Sept 6
R 3: NZ$1.1546 – 100 day moving average
R 2: NZ$1.1477 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 1: NZ$1.1443 – High Oct 21
Latest price: NZ$1.1412
S 1: NZ$1.1345 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
S 2: NZ$1.1302 – Low Oct 14
S 3: NZ$1.1261 – Low Oct 3
S 4: NZ$1.1215 – Monthly low Oct 20 & 30
Fresh 4 month highs for AUD/JPY overnight with a technically significant close above the 200-DMA. This is the first close above the 200-DMA since early June. Overall focus now shifts to the Y99.48 break down level from late May. Back below the Oct 18 low is needed to signal a false break and ease the immediate bullish focus. Daily tech studies are approaching overbought levels and could become an issue at some stage.
R 4: Y97.93 – High May 30
R 3: Y96.02 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Y95.93 – 50% Fibonacci retracement Y105.42-Y86.43
R 1: Y94.99 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
Latest price: Y94.77
S 1: Y94.15 – Low Oct 18
S 2: Y93.70 – Hourly support Oct 16
S 3: Y93.29 – Low Oct 15
S 4: Y92.39 – Previous daily resistance now support
EUR/AUD managed fresh 3 month lows to start the new week before recovering a little lost ground. Tests of the A$1.3802-74 support region remain favoured until a close back above the Oct 14 high is seen. A close back above the A$1.4236 level is now needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while back above the A$1.4384 Oct 14 high is needed to confirm a break of the 21 and 100-DMA’s shifting focus back to tests of the key A$1.4558 resistance level.
R 4: A$1.4465 – High Oct 7
R 3: A$1.4384 – High Oct 14
R 2: A$1.4275 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 1: A$1.4236 – High Oct 17
Latest price: A$1.4158
S 1: A$1.3956 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2222-1.5028
S 2: A$1.3874 – Monthly low July 10
S 3: A$1.3802 – Low June 7
S 4: A$1.3625 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2222-1.5028
USD/KRW has found support at the Krw1060.0 level to start the new week but overall a test of the falling daily channel base remains targeted with this level now coming in below the 2013 low. A close above Krw1069.3 is now needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while back above the Krw1081.1 level is needed to see focus shift higher to layers of resistance in the Krw1091.1-1095.0 region including the falling daily channel top and 55-DMA.
R 4: Krw1091.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: Krw1081.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1071.6 – 21 day moving average
R 1: Krw1069.3 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: Krw1062.8
S 1: Krw1060.0 – Low Oct 18
S 2: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
S 3: Krw1052.2 – Falling daily channel base
S 4: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
As oversold daily tech studies slowly correct, USD/SGD has bounced from just short of the Sgd1.2359 support, but a close back above the Sgd1.2464 level remains needed to relieve the bearish focus that is currently targeting a test of the May monthly low. Overall a close above the Sgd1.2541 level is needed to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and shift overall focus back to the Sgd1.2649 resistance.
R 4: Sgd1.2541 – High Oct 2 & 10
R 3: Sgd1.2496 – High Oct 11
R 2: Sgd1.2483 – 21 day moving average
R 1: Sgd1.2464 – High Oct 16
Latest price: Sgd1.2415
S 1: Sgd1.2359 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10
S 3: Sgd1.2268 – Monthly low May 9
S 4: Sgd1.2224 – Low Jan 10
