AUD/USD: The move to fresh 5 month highs sees immediate focus shift to the 200-DMA at $0.9762 with a close above the June 3 high needed to confirm a break of the 200-DMA. The pair has not traded above the 200-DMA since breaking sharply lower in mid April with a close above seen as a significant event. Of some concern for the aussie are tech studies that are approaching overbought levels. A close below $0.9604 is needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus
R 4: $0.9839 – High May 21
R 3: $0.9791 – Monthly high June 3
R 2: $0.9762 – 200 day moving average
R 1: $0.9716 – 50% Fibonacci retracement $1.0582-0.8850
Latest price: $0.9665
S 1: $0.9648 – Hourly support Oct 18
S 2: $0.9604 – Hourly support Oct 18
S 3: $0.9568 – Previous hourly resistance now support
S 4: $0.9477 – Hourly support Oct 15
NZD/USD: The sharp move higher last week has seen the immediate focus shift to tests of the $0.8555-82 region with overall focus now on tests of the 2013 high. Back below the $0.8445 level is now needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus while back below the layers of support in the $0.8159-0.8233 region is needed to shift overall focus back to lower levels. Recent closes above the 21 day upper Bollinger band are a rarity.
R 4: $0.8676 – 2013 High Apr 11
R 3: $0.8582 – Monthly high May 1
R 2: $0.8555 – High May 6
R 1: $0.8524 – High Oct 17
Latest price: $0.8484
S 1: $0.8445 – Previous hourly resistance now support
S 2: $0.8398 – Hourly support Oct 16
S 3: $0.8347 – Hourly support Oct 14
S 4: $0.8334 – 21 day moving average
AUD/NZD: Lower levels remain favoured until the pair can close above the NZ$1.1477 resistance level. Initial support is now noted at the alternating support/resistance NZ$1.1345 level with layers of support noted in the NZ$1.1192-1.1261 region below. Above NZ$1.1477is needed to see focus shift higher and back to the NZ$1.1658-1.1748 region
R 4: NZ$1.1553 – 100 day moving average
R 4: NZ$1.1477 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: NZ$1.1439 – High Oct 10
R 2: NZ$1.1398 – 55 day moving average
Latest price: NZ$1.1377
S 1: NZ$1.1345 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
S 2: NZ$1.1302 – Low Oct 14
S 3: NZ$1.1261 – Low Oct 3
S 4: NZ$1.1215 – Monthly low Oct 20 & 30
The higher daily highs and lows continue for AUD/JPY with Friday’s move higher pausing just short of the 200-DMA as tests the rising 21 day upper Bollinger band remain favoured. A close back below the Friday’s low is now needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus while back below the Y93.29 level is needed to shift overall back focus back to layers of support in the Y90.11-82 region. Above the 200-DMA targets the Y99.48 level.
R 4: Y97.93 – High May 30
R 3: Y96.02 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Y95.93 – 50% Fibonacci retracement Y105.42-Y86.43
R 1: Y94.73 – 200 day moving average
Latest price: Y94.53
S 1: Y94.15 – Low Oct 18
S 2: Y93.70 – Hourly support Oct 16
S 3: Y93.29 – Low Oct 15
S 4: Y92.39 – Previous daily resistance now support
EUR/AUD marginally traded below the A$1.4145 level to end the week, recording a bearish NY close. Tests of the A$1.3802-74 support region remain favoured until a close back above the Oct 14 high is seen. A close back above the A$1.4275 level is needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while back above the A$1.4384 Oct 14 high is needed to confirm a break of the 21 and 100-DMA’s shifting focus back to tests of the key A$1.4558 resistance level.
R 4: A$1.4558 – High Sept 4
R 3: A$1.4465 – High Oct 7
R 2: A$1.4384 – High Oct 14
R 1: A$1.4275 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: A$1.4155
S 1: A$1.3956 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2222-1.5028
S 2: A$1.3874 – Monthly low July 10
S 3: A$1.3802 – Low June 7
S 4: A$1.3625 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2222-1.5028
USD/KRW remains heavy following the break below key support last week. A test of the falling daily channel base remains targeted with this level now coming in below the 2013 low. A close above Krw1069.3 is now needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while back above the Krw1081.1 level is needed to see focus shift higher to layers of resistance in the Krw1091.1-1095.0 region including the falling daily channel top and 55-DMA.
R 4: Krw1091.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: Krw1081.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1072.5 – 21 day moving average
R 1: Krw1069.3 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: Krw1060.4
S 1: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
S 2: Krw1053.1 – Falling daily channel base
S 3: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
S 4: Krw997.8 – 2008 low July 10
USD/SGD finally took out the June monthly low last week with overall focus shifting to tests of the May monthly low. We continue to look for a close back above the Oct 16 high to relieve the immediate bearish focus, while a close above the Sgd1.2541 level is needed to confirm a break of the 21 and 200-DMA’s and shift focus back to the Sgd1.2649 resistance level. Of some concern at present are daily tech studies which are approaching oversold levels.
R 4: Sgd1.2541 – High Oct 2 & 10
R 3: Sgd1.2496 – High Oct 11
R 2: Sgd1.2464 – High Oct 16
R 1: Sgd1.2407 – High Oct 18
Latest price: Sgd1.2375
S 1: Sgd1.2359 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10
S 3: Sgd1.2268 – Monthly low May 9
S 4: Sgd1.2224 – Low Jan 10
