Yesterday’s doji candle is promising but still a reversal and close above 97.87 is needed to confirm the bullish implications. The .618C target for wave-E at 97.08 is still important support as are the series of lows from August at 96.82. This triangle is expected to rally and reach our long-term Q1 target zone near 106/107 but a break of the wave-C low at 95.81 negates this multi-month bullish coil.
S/t, the wave-E sell-off is supportive of the triangle because of the overlapping/choppy trade. There are minor bullish divergences and the makings of a bullish falling wedge. The first upside resistance is the polarity level at 97.76; more important to reversing the downtrend is channel resistance at 98.30. Levels: Support – 97.08, 96.93, 96.82 Resistance –97.76, 98.30, 98.75, 99.15
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Nomura