NFP revisions a risk today for the data dependent dollar
At 14 GMT (10am local) the Labour Department will release estimated revisions to monthly non-farm payrolls growth for the 12 months ending in March 2013. Our economists see risks skewed in favour of a downward revision in light of the weakness in the JOLTS survey and GDP growth during this period, both inconsistent with the pace of payroll growth originally reported (see the economics Global Daily Spotlight, 25 September). We also see scope for a big jump in weekly jobless claims (forecast 370K up from 309K last week, above 325K consensus) as computer issues which suppressed claims the prior two weeks should now be resolved. While this could hurt USD today with month-end flows also complicating the picture, any set back will add an opportunity to add long positions especially against the low yielders. Positioning now is a lot cleaner; BNP Paribas Positioning Analysis suggests USD positioning has now collapsed to flat in the USD for the first time since March, which should reduce USD vulnerability to downside data surprises somewhat.
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BNP Paribas