AUD/USD paused just short of the $0.8337 support yesterday and continues to remain heavy. A close below the 100-DMA could be a significant bearish signal, especially when combined with correcting very overbought daily tech studies. O/B daily tech studies appear to be weighing on the pair and a close below the $0.9221 level remains needed to hint at a deeper correction and shift overall focus back to the $0.8850-95 region.
R 4: $0.9527 – High Sept 18
R 3: $0.9482 – Hourly breakdown level Sept 19
R 2: $0.9458 – High Sept 20
R 1: $0.9420 – Hourly resistance Sept 24
Latest price: $0.9362
S 1: $0.9337 – Low Sept 18
S 2: $0.9315 – 100 day moving average
S 3: $0.9280 – Alternating support/resistance
S 4: $0.9221 – Low Sept 10
Very overbought daily tech studies continue to weigh as they slowly correct, with the NZD/USD now targeting a test of the $0.8159-07 support region. The break below the $0.8327 level has relieved the previous bullish focus and we will continue to look for a close below the $0.8159 level to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and shift overall focus back to tests of the 2013 low. The $0.8300-45 region is expected to cap bounces once again.
R 4: $0.8435 – High Sept 19
R 3: $0.8401 – High Sept 20
R 2: $0.8345 – Hourly resistance Sept 24
R 1: $0.8300 – Hourly resistance Sept 24
Latest price: $0.8241
S 1: $0.8207 – Low Sept 18
S 2: $0.8181 – 200 day moving average
S 3: $0.8159 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 4: $0.8080 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of $0.7724-0.8435
AUD/NZD continues its bounce from ahead of the 2013 low earlier in the week with the immediate focus now on tests of layers of resistance in the NZ$1.1401-77 region including the 21-DMA at NZ$1.1437. The NZ$1.1401 level is capping for now and the pair needs to close back below the NZ$1.1315 hourly support to relieve the immediate bullish focus. Daily tech studies are slowly correcting from O/S levels.
R 4: NZ$1.1477 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: NZ$1.1442 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: NZ$1.1420 – Ichimoku cloud base
R 1: NZ$1.1401 – High Sept 19
Latest price: NZ$1.1352
S 1: NZ$1.1315 – Hourly support Sept 24
S 2: NZ$1.1254 – Low Sept 24
S 3: NZ$1.1185 – 2013 low Aug 1
S 4: NZ$1.0936 – Low Oct 24 2008
AUD/JPY closed below marginally below the 100-DMA (Y92.31) overnight and we continue to look for a close below the Sept 16 low and 21-DMA to hint at a sustained break of the 100-DMA. A close below the Y91.54-56 support is needed to shift the immediate focus to tests of the Y90.11 Aug monthly high. Daily tech studies are working off their overbought condition and may continue to thwart attempts to head higher with initial resistance noted at Y93.56.
R 4: Y94.66 – High June 6
R 3: Y94.56 – 200 day moving average
R 2: Y94.09 – High Sept 20
R 1: Y93.56 – High Sept 23
Latest price: Y92.17
S 1: Y91.54 – 21 day moving average
S 2: Y90.67 – Low Sept 6
S 3: Y90.35 – 55 day moving average
S 4: Y90.11 – Ichimoku cloud top
EUR/AUD: We will now look for a close above the Sept 23 high to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (A$1.4137) and see the immediate focus shift to tests of the Sept 4 high. A close above the Sept 4 high would then end bearish aspirations and see the focus return to retests of the 2013 high. Initial support is noted at the Sept 23 low with retests favoured while the Sept 4 high caps.
R 4: A$1.4757 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: A$1.4558 – High Sept 4
R 2: A$1.4518 – 55 day moving average
R 1: A$1.4459 – High Sept 23
Latest price: A$1.4440
S 1: A$1.4275 – Low Sept 23
S 2: A$1.4197 – Low Sept 18
S 3: A$1.4165 – Low July 17/100-DMA
S 4: A$1.4032 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
Oversold daily tech studies remain a concern for USD/KRW and may limit any follow through on a break lower. In saying that, a close above Krw1081.1 remains needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus, while back above the Krw1091.1 level is needed to shift focus back to the Krw1105.1-1108.4 region. It is worth noting that the falling daily channel top comes in around the Krw1105.4 level and adds significance to the Krw1105.1-1108.4 region.
R 4: Krw1108.4 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: Krw1105.3 – 200 day moving average
R 2: Krw1091.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 1: Krw1081.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: Krw1076.4
S 1: Krw1070.4 – Low Sept 19
S 2: Krw1063.8 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: Krw1060.5 – Alternating daily support/resistance
S 4: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
USD/SGD remains little changed from Tuesday’s NY close after having briefly traded above the Sgd1.2564 previous resistance level as daily tech studies continue to correct from O/S levels. We will now look for a close above the Sgd1.2572 level to signal a shift higher in immediate focus to tests of the Sgd1.2644-49 region. A close above Sgd1.2649 is needed to shift overall focus back to retests of the Sgd1.2812-60.
R 4: Sgd1.2649 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: Sgd1.2644 – 100 day moving average
R 2: Sgd1.2610 – High Sept 18
R 1: Sgd1.2572 – High Sept 25
Latest price: Sgd1.2541
S 1: Sgd1.2479 – Low Sept 23
S 2: Sgd1.2407 – Monthly low June 7
S 3: Sgd1.2359 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 4: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10