The December Yen’s post-FOMC meeting strength only lasted a few hours, as prices have fallen all the way back to pre-Fed levels early this morning. While Japanese trade numbers showed double-digit year-on-year growth with both exports and imports, they were generally in-line with market forecasts and provided little additional support for the Yen. Although the Fed’s inaction will keep the Yen as the safe-haven destination of choice, that status may not provide much longer-term benefit as global risk attitudes continue to improve. The December Yen may fall back towards the 100.95 level later today, and may be showing early signs that a new downside leg may be about to start.
Technical Outlook
JPY (SEP): The market now above the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average is an indication the intermediate-term trend has turned positive. The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The next upside objective is 103.32. The next area of resistance is around 102.89 and 103.32, while 1st support hits today at 101.37 and below there at 100.28.