AUD/USD is pausing ahead of the 100-DMA and Monday’s high with the pair closing above the 21-WMA ($0.9347) for the first time since April. Initial support remains at $0.9280 and we continue to look for a close below the Sept 10 low to relieve the current bullish focus and see the aussie head back towards the $0.9046 Sept 4 low. With daily tech studies remaining in O/B territory attempts higher may continue to lack follow through.
R 4: $0.9573 – High June 18
R 3: $0.9512 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of $1.0582-0.8850
R 2: $0.9391 – High Sept 16
R 1: $0.9364 – 100 day moving average
Latest price: $0.9354
S 1: $0.9280 – Alternating support/resistance
S 2: $0.9221 – Low Sept 10
S 3: $0.9166 – Low Sept 9
S 4: $0.9116 – Low Sept 6
NZD/USD continues its move higher with the pair closing above the 200-DMA for the first time since mid May despite the very overbought daily tech studies. The pair is expected to continue to oscillate around the sharply rising 21 day upper Bollinger band ($0.8235) until a close back below the $0.8159 support is seen. A close below this level is needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus.
R 4: $0.8356 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: $0.8317 – High May 13
R 2: $0.8297 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement $0.8676-0.7685
R 1: $0.8271 – High May 16
Latest price: $0.8233
S 1: $0.8183 – 200 day moving average
S 2: $0.8159 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 3: $0.8084 – Low Sept 12
S 4: $0.8035 – Low Sept 11
AUD/NZD: The bounces continue to pause ahead of the Ichimoku cloud base with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus and a close above the 21-DMA needed to see focus shift higher to the NZ$1.1658 high set earlier in the month. Below the NZ$1.1338 level is needed to confirm the bearish focus and see the pair continue to head back towards the NZ$1.1185-1.1265 region. The 21 day lower Bollinger band is noted at NZ$1.1339 with closes below not often seen.
R 4: NZ$1.1576 – High Sept 6
R 3: NZ$1.1488 – 21 day moving average
R 2: NZ$1.1480 – Previous hourly support now resistance
R 1: NZ$1.1429 – Ichimoku cloud base
Latest price: NZ$1.1354
S 1: NZ$1.1338 – Low Sept 12
S 2: NZ$1.1265 – Low Aug 19
S 3: NZ$1.1185 – 2013 low Aug 11
S 4: NZ$1.0936 – Low Oct 24 2008
The Y91.56 level remains pivotal support for the AUD/JPY with a close below this level needed to see the immediate focus shift to a test of the Y89.70-00 region with the 21-DMA noted just above at Y90.74. Daily tech studies are very overbought and looking to correct lower which could weigh on the pair this week but back below Y91.56 is needed to confirm a fresh move lower is underway and remove focus from tests of the Sept 10 high.
R 4: Y94.39 – 200 day moving average
R 3: Y93.79 – High June 10
R 2: Y93.57 – High Sept 10
R 1: Y92.90 – Previous hourly support now resistance
Latest price: Y92.75
S 1: Y91.56 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: Y90.64 – Low Sept 6
S 3: Y89.98 – Low Sept 4
S 4: Y89.24 – Ichimoku cloud base
EUR/AUD continues to traded sideways, finding support ahead of the July 17 low with bounces falling short of last week’s highs. The $1.4445 level remains pivotal with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus that is targeting a test of the $1.4165 July 17 low. Overall we continue to look for a close back above the 21 day moving average to shift focus back to the 2013 highs and the double daily top in the $1.5025-30 region.
R 4: A$1.4580 – 21 day moving average
R 3: A$1.4570 – High Sept 4
R 2: A$1.4445 – Alternating daily support/resistance
R 1: A$1.4399 – High Sept 12
Latest price: A$1.4280
S 1: A$1.4165 – Low July 17
S 2: A$1.4079 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: A$1.3874 – Low July 10
S 4: A$1.3802 – Low June 7
USD/KRW continues to trade sideways following Monday’s brief dip to 7 month lows . Despite the oversold daily tech studies the bearish focus that targets a test of the Krw1071.2 alternating support/resistance level remains favoured until the pair can manage a close above the Krw1091.1 resistance level that capped moves higher last week. Above this level then sees immediate focus shift to retests of the Krw1105.1-1108.4 region.
R 4: Krw1118.6 – 100 day moving average
R 3: Krw1108.4 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1105.2 – 200 day moving average
R 1: Krw1091.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: Krw1083.5
S 1: Krw1081.1 – Low Sept 16
S 2: Krw1077.0 – Low Feb 20
S 3: Krw1071.2 – Alternating daily support/resistance
S 4: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
USD/SGD continues to oscillate around the falling 21 day lower Bollinger band (Sgd1.2608) as it heads towards the Sgd1.2564 support with below then targeting a test of the 200-DMA (Sgd1.2493). A close back above the Sgd1.2649 level is now needed to relieve the current bearish focus with above the Sept 9 high needed to shift overall focus higher once more. Oversold daily tech studies are a concern but for now the focus remains lower
R 4: Sgd1.2812 – High Sept 6
R 3: Sgd1.2758 – High Sept 9
R 2: Sgd1.2712 – High Sept 13
R 1: Sgd1.2649 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: Sgd1.2591
S 1: Sgd1.2564 – Monthly low Aug 12/50% Fibo
S 2: Sgd1.2494 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Sgd1.2268-1.2860
S 3: Sgd1.2493 – 200 day moving average
S 4: Sgd1.2482 – Low June 13