The bounce to start the new week for the AUD/USD spiked above both the 21-WMA and 100-DMA before closing back below as the move higher lacked follow through and very overbought daily tech studies start to slow the move higher. Initial support is noted at the $0.9280 level but we will continue to look for a close below the Sept 10 low to relieve the current bullish focus and see the aussie head back towards the $0.9046 Sept 4 low.
R 4: $0.9573 – High June 18
R 3: $0.9512 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of $1.0582-0.8850
R 2: $0.9374 – 100 day moving average
R 1: $0.9345 – 21 week moving average
Latest price: $0.9317
S 1: $0.9280 – Alternating support/resistance
S 2: $0.9221 – Low Sept 10
S 3: $0.9166 – Low Sept 9
S 4: $0.9116 – Low Sept 6
NZD/USD: The very overbought daily momentum, slow stochastic and RSI studies appear to be hampering bullish follow through with yesterday’s spike above the 200-DMA and 21 day upper Bollinger band dipping back to the $0.8159 level that previously capped on Wednesday and Thursday last week. Will look for a close below the $0.8159 level today to relieve the current bullish focus and see the immediate focus shift lower to tests of the Sept 12 low.
R 4: $0.8297 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement $0.8676-0.7685
R 3: $0.8271 – High May 16
R 2: $0.8228 – High Sept 16
R 1: $0.8184 – 200 day moving average
Latest price: $0.8172
S 1: $0.8159 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: $0.8084 – Low Sept 12
S 3: $0.8035 – Low Sept 11
S 4: $0.7997 – 100 day moving average
AUD/NZD: The bounce to start the new week paused at the Ichimoku cloud base. We will look for a close above the 21-DMA to end the current bearish focus and see focus shift higher to the NZ$1.1658 high set earlier in the month. Daily tech studies have corrected back to more neutral levels and are no longer an issue. Below the NZ$1.1338 level is needed to confirm the bearish focus and see the pair continue to head back towards the NZ$1.1185-1.1265 region.
R 4: NZ$1.1576 – High Sept 6
R 3: NZ$1.1485 – 21 day moving average
R 2: NZ$1.1480 – Previous hourly support now resistance
R 1: NZ$1.1430 – Ichimoku cloud base
Latest price: NZ$1.1395
S 1: NZ$1.1338 – Low Sept 12
S 2: NZ$1.1324 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: NZ$1.1265 – Low Aug 19
S 4: NZ$1.1185 – 2013 Low Aug 11
AUD/JPY is virtually unchanged from this time yesterday with the attempt higher to start the new week pausing ahead of initial resistance and the 100-DMA (Y92.87). The Y91.56 level remains pivotal support with a close below this level needed to see the immediate focus shift to a test of the Y89.70-00 region with the 21-DMA noted at Y89.87. Daily tech studies are very overbought and looking to correct lower which could weigh on the pair this week
R 4: Y94.39 – 200 day moving average
R 3: Y93.79 – High June 10
R 2: Y93.57 – High Sept 10
R 1: Y92.90 – Previous hourly support now resistance
Latest price: Y92.32
S 1: Y91.56 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: Y90.64 – Low Sept 6
S 3: Y89.98 – Low Sept 4
S 4: Y89.24 – Ichimoku cloud base
EUR/AUD continues to find support ahead of the July 17 low with a bounce from just short of the Ichimoku cloud to start the new week.The $1.4445 resistance level remains somewhat pivotal with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus that is targeting a test of the $1.4165 July 17 low. Overall we will look for a close back above the 21 day moving average to shift focus back to the 2013 highs and the double daily top in the $1.5025-30 region.
R 4: A$1.4604 – 21 day moving average
R 3: A$1.4570 – High Sept 4
R 2: A$1.4445 – Alternating daily support/resistance
R 1: A$1.4399 – High Sept 12
Latest price: A$1.4312
S 1: A$1.4165 – Low July 17
S 2: A$1.4114 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: A$1.3874 – Low July 10
S 4: A$1.3802 – Low June 7
USD/KRW briefly dipped below the Feb 28 low to start the new week before closing marginally back above. Despite the oversold daily tech studies the bearish focus that targets a test of the Krw1071.2 alternating support/resistance level remains favoured until the pair can manage a close above the Krw1091.1 resistance level that capped moves higher last week. Above then sees immediate focus shift to retests of Krw1105.1-1108.4.
R 4: Krw1118.8 – 100 day moving average
R 3: Krw1108.4 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1105.2 – 200 day moving average
R 1: Krw1091.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: Krw1086.5
S 1: Krw1081.6 – Low Feb 28
S 2: Krw1077.0 – Low Feb 20
S 3: Krw1071.2 – Alternating daily support/resistance
S 4: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
USD/SGD broke and closed below the Ichimoku cloud base and 100-DMA to start the new week, the first time the pair has traded below the cloud base since mid-May. The break lower sees the immediate bearish focus remain with the Sgd1.2564 level the immediate target. A close back above the Sept 10 high is needed to relieve the current bearish focus with above the Sept 9 high needed to shift overall focus higher
R 4: Sgd1.2860 – 2013 high Aug 22
R 3: Sgd1.2812 – High Sept 6
R 2: Sgd1.2758 – High Sept 9
R 1: Sgd1.2709 – High Sept 10
Latest price: Sgd1.2620
S 1: Sgd1.2564 – Monthly low Aug 12/50% Fibo
S 2: Sgd1.2494 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Sgd1.2268-1.2860
S 3: Sgd1.2491 – 200 day moving average
S 4: Sgd1.2482 – Low June 13