AUD/USD has bounced sharply higher to start the new week with the immediate focus now shifting to last week’s $0.9354 high with the 100-DMA noted just above. The $0.9221 level supported last week with a close below needed to relieve the renewed bullish pressure and see the immediate focus shift lower to the $0.9045 level. A close above the 100-DMA confirms the break higher and sees focus turn to the $0.9665 level that capped for most of June.
R 4: $0.9512 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of $1.0582-0.8850
R 3: $0.9395 – 21 week moving average
R 2: $0.9385 – 100 day moving average
R 1: $0.9350 – High Sept 12
Latest price: $0.9332
S 1: $0.9280 – Alternating support/resistance
S 2: $0.9221 – Low Sept 10
S 3: $0.9166 – Low Sept 9
S 4: $0.9116 – Low Sept 6
NZD/USD has taken out layers of resistance in the $0.8160-0.8211 region with the sharp move higher in early Asian trading to start the new week. Initial support is now noted at the 200-DMA but we will look for an hourly close back below the $0.8170 level to signal a false break higher. The rising 21 day upper Bollinger band comes in at $0.8218 today with closes above a rarity. Daily tech studies also remain in very overbought territory.
R 4: $0.8418 – High May 10
R 3: $0.8356 – Daily Breakdown level May 10
R 2: $0.8297 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement $0.8676-0.7685
R 1: $0.8271 – High May 16
Latest price: $0.8212
S 1: $0.8185 – 200 day moving average
S 2: $0.8170 – Previous daily res now support
S 3: $0.8084 – Low Sept 12
S 4: $0.8035 – Low Sept 11
The retreat from within the Ichimoku cloud continued for the AUD/NZD last week with the pair now having closing below the 21-DMA. The closes below the 21-DMA see focus shift lower once more to the NZ$1.1185-1.1265 support region with the 2013 low noted at NZ$1.1185. Topside the pair now needs to close above Friday’s high to relieve the immediate bearish pressure with a close above NZ$1.1480 needed to shift focus back to the Sept 6 high.
R 4: NZ$1.1576 – High Sept 6
R 3: NZ$1.1480 – Previous hourly support now resistance/21-DMA
R 2: NZ$1.1434 – Ichimoku cloud base
R 1: NZ$1.1405 – High Sept 13
Latest price: NZ$1.1363
S 1: NZ$1.1338 – Low Sept 12
S 2: NZ$1.1300 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: NZ$1.1265 – Low Aug 19
S 4: NZ$1.1185 – 2013 Low Aug 11
AUD/JPY: The pullback from the Ichimoku cloud top (Y92.73) last week has so far paused ahead of the Y91.56 level that was previously noted as resistance with a close below this level needed to see the immediate focus shift to a test of the Y89.70-00 region with the 21-DMA noted at Y89.87. Daily tech studies are very overbought and looking to correct lower which could weigh on the pair this week.
R 4: Y94.37 – 200 day moving average
R 3: Y93.79 – High June 10
R 2: Y93.57 – High Sept 10
R 1: Y92.90 – Previous hourly support now resistance
Latest price: Y92.30
S 1: Y91.56 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: Y90.64 – Low Sept 6
S 3: Y89.98 – Low Sept 4
S 4: Y89.73 – Low 21 day moving average
EUR/AUD: The $1.4445 resistance level remains somewhat pivotal with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus that is targeting a test of the $1.4165 July 17 low. Overall we will look for a close back above the 21 day moving average to shift focus back to the 2013 highs and the double daily top in the $1.5025-30 region. While the 21-DMA caps potential remains for an overall continuation lower that targets the $1.3802 June 7 low.
R 4: A$1.4604 – 21 day moving average
R 3: A$1.4570 – High Sept 4
R 2: A$1.4445 – Alternating daily support/resistance
R 1: A$1.4399 – High Sept 12
Latest price: A$1.4290
S 1: A$1.4165 – Low July 17
S 2: A$1.4128 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: A$1.3874 – Low July 10
S 4: A$1.3802 – Low June 7
USD/KRW: The Krw1081.6 support continues to stall the move lower with very oversold daily tech studies a concern. While the Krw1091.1 level continues to remain initial resistance the bearish pressure is expected to remain with a break lower favoured. A break below initial support sees focus ratchet lower to retests of the 2013 low whereas a break of initial resistance opens up for a bounce back towards key layers of resistance in the Krw1105.1-1108.4 region.
R 4: Krw1119.0 – 100 day moving average
R 3: Krw1108.4 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1105.0 – 200 day moving average
R 1: Krw1091.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: Krw1086.5
S 1: Krw1081.6 – Low Feb 28
S 2: Krw1077.0 – Low Feb 20
S 3: Krw1071.2 – Alternating daily support/resistance
S 4: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
USD/SGD has broken below the Ichimoku cloud base, the first time the pair has traded below the cloud base since mid-May. The break lower sees the immediate bearish focus remain with the Sgd1.2564 level the current focus. A close back above the Sept 10 high is needed to relieve the current bearish focus with above the Sept 9 high needed to shift overall focus higher. Oversold daily tech studies are a concern but for now the focus remains lower.
R 4: Sgd1.2860 – 2013 high Aug 22
R 3: Sgd1.2812 – High Sept 6
R 2: Sgd1.2758 – High Sept 9
R 1: Sgd1.2709 – High Sept 10
Latest price: Sgd1.2599
S 1: Sgd1.2564 – Monthly low Aug 12/50% Fibo
S 2: Sgd1.2494 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Sgd1.2268-1.2860
S 3: Sgd1.2488 – 200 day moving average
S 4: Sgd1.2482 – Low June 13