Yesterday’s slight sell off in the Dollar is leading to a slight rebound today. The base that was forming fell apart yesterday. Sometimes no news is bad news when there is a negative bias to the market and that seems to be what the Dollar is experiencing. Today’s scheduled news of Weekly Unemployment Claims and Federal Budget Balance may provide some action. If Claims come in below 320k and the Budget Balance above -100.0 billion then the Dollar could build on its small rally today. If Claims jump above 340k and the Budget Balance is deeper than -160.0 billion then the Dollar will sell off. Dollar movement today will be restrained somewhat as tomorrow’s scheduled data has greater market moving potential.
Technical Outlook
USD (SEP): Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The close under the 18-day moving average indicates the intermediate-term trend could be turning down. There could be some early pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next downside objective is 81.11. The next area of resistance is around 81.71 and 82.07, while 1st support hits today at 81.24 and below there at 81.11.