AUD/USD has broken into the key $0.9315-43 res region with the Ichimoku cloud top noted at $0.9336. A close above the $0.9343 level sees focus shift higher to the $0.9665-0.9920 region with the 200-DMA at $0.9910. Initial support is found at Tuesday’s $0.9221 low and a close below this level is needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus. Overall we will now look for a close below the Sept 6 low to end bullish hopes and shift focus lower.
R 4: $0.9414 – 100 day moving average
R 3: $0.9394 – 21 week moving average
R 2: $0.9343 – High Jun 26
R 1: $0.9336 – Ichimoku cloud top
Latest price: $0.9309
S 1: $0.9221 – Low Sept 10
S 2: $0.9166 – Low Sept 9
S 3: $0.9116 – Low Sept 6
S 4: $0.9074 – Breakout level Sept 4
NZD/USD followed up Monday’s close above the 100-DMA with an extension higher on Tuesday as the pair heads towards layers of resistance in the $0.8160-0.8211 region. A close below the initial support at $0.8000 is needed to relieve the immediate bullish pressure whereas a close back below the pivotal $0.7935 support is needed to see focus shift back to retests of the 2013 low.
R 4: $0.8188 – 200 day moving average
R 3: $0.8180 – 50% Fibonacci retracement $0.8676-0.7685
R 2: $0.8160 – Monthly high Aug 19
R 1: $0.8144 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
Latest price: $0.8062
S 1: $0.8000 – Hourly support Sept 10
S 2: $0.7960 – Low Sept 9
S 3: $0.7935 – Breakout level Sept 6
S 4: $0.7840 – Breakout level Sept 4
AUD/NZD continued its retreat from within the Ichimoku cloud on Friday with the pair having paused ahead of the 21-DMA on Monday. The failure to hold above the NZ$1.1640 level that previously acted as resistance is of some concern for the pair as daily tech studies begin to correct from overbought levels. While the 21-DMA supports some hope remains for bounces back towards last week’s high but below the 21-DMA shifts focus back to the 2013 low.
R 4: NZ$1.1744 – 100 day moving average
R 3: NZ$1.1658 – High Sept 4
R 2: NZ$1.1633 – Hourly resistance Sept 4
R 1: NZ$1.1576 – High Sept 6
Latest price: NZ$1.1539
S 1: NZ$1.1474 – 21 day moving average
S 2: NZ$1.1442 – Low Sep Aug 28 & 29
S 3: NZ$1.1361 – Low Aug 21
S 4: NZ$1.1265 – Low Aug 19
AUD/JPY traded at the highest level since early June before pausing at the Ichimoku cloud top. The 200-DMA is at Y94.27 and we will look for a close above the June 6 high as confirmation of a break of the 200-DMA which then sees focus shift higher to tests of the Y98.00-99.00 region. A close back below the Y92.02 support is needed to relieve the immediate bullish pressure while below Y89.98 is needed to shift focus lower.
R 4: Y94.66 – High June 6
R 3: Y94.27 – 200 day moving average
R 2: Y93.79 – High June 10
R 1: Y93.72 – Ichimoku cloud top
Latest price: Y93.45
S 1: Y93.02 – Previous monthly high now support
S 2: Y92.02 – Breakout level Sept 10
S 3: Y90.64 – Low Sept 6
S 4: Y89.98 – Low Sept 4
EUR/AUD: The $1.4445 resistance level remains somewhat pivotal with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus that is targeting a test of the $1.4165 July 17 low. Overall we will look for a close back above the 21 day moving average to shift focus back to the 2013 highs and the double daily top in the $1.5025-30 region. While the 21-DMA caps potential remains for a continuation lower that targets the $1.3810 June 14 low.
R 4: $1.4643 – 21 day moving average
R 3: $1.4570 – High Sept 4
R 2: $1.4445 – Alternating daily support/resistance
R 1: $1.4390 – High Sept 6
Latest price: $1.4244
S 1: $1.4217 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 2: $1.4165 – Low July 17
S 3: $1.3810 – Low June 14
S 4: $1.3320 – Low May 24
USD/KRW continued to pause ahead of the Krw1081.6 Feb 28 low for the second consecutive day on Tuesday but we will continue to look for a close back above Krw1091.1 to relieve the immediate bearish focus. Oversold daily tech studies are a concern and may limit any follow through of further attempts lower. For now, while the Krw1105.1-1108.4 region caps the immediate focus remains on a retest of the 2013 low.
R 4: Krw1119.8 – 100 day moving average
R 3: Krw1108.4 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1105.1 – 200 day moving average
R 1: Krw1091.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: Krw1085.5
S 1: Krw1081.6 – Low Feb 28
S 2: Krw1077.0 – Low Feb 20
S 3: Krw1071.2 – Alternating daily support/resistance
S 4: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
USD/SGD: The close below the Sgd1.2717 Aug 3 low has seen focus shift back to the Sgd1.2564 Aug monthly low with a break below then targeting the 200-DMA. We will look for a close back above Monday’s Sgd1.2758 high to signal a false break lower, with the 21-DMA noted just below at Sgd1.2754. The Ichimoku cloud base comes in around Sgd1.2632 and it is worth noting that dollar-sing has not closed below the cloud base since May.
R 4: Sgd1.2860 – 2013 high Aug 22
R 3: Sgd1.2812 – High Sept 6
R 2: Sgd1.2758 – High Sept 9
R 1: Sgd1.2709 – High Sept 10
Latest price: Sgd1.2681
S 1: Sgd1.2632 – Ichimoku cloud base
S 2: Sgd1.2619 – 100 day moving average
S 3: Sgd1.2564 – Monthly low Aug 12
S 4: Sgd1.2482 – 200 day moving average