After starting Monday’s session on a positive note the Dollar has turned negative. Fears of the US going into Syria and Friday’s disappointing jobs data continue to weight on the Dollar. Friday’s US job’s report showed that the official Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.3% which is one step closer to Fed tapering; however, the big disappointment was the revision to July’s Non-Farm Payroll data which came in at 104k. July’s number was originally reported at 162k and with such a large revision to 104k; it spooked the markets into thinking that the 7.3% Unemployment Rate would be revised higher next month casing the Fed not to start tapering at their next meeting. Their meeting to decide when to taper wraps up on September 18th, well before the next employment release. The rest of today’s session will continue to have the carryover negative tone from Friday with the only potential market moving report being Consumer Credit. Consumer Credit would have to be way off from expectations to be a market mover; expectations are for a reading of 12.5 billion.
The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of September 3rd for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 11,778 contracts, an increase of 368 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 19,769 contracts, an increase of 2,311 contracts. The Nonreportable traders were net long 7,992 contracts, an increase of 1,943 contracts. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 19,770 contracts. This represents an increase of 2,311 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook
USD (SEP): The market back below the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The near-term upside objective is at 83.01. The next area of resistance is around 82.56 and 83.01, while 1st support hits today at 81.81 and below there at 81.49.