The US Dollar continues its rise into this week following late last week’s leap higher. The threat of US military intervention into Syria has been put off by President Obama deflecting the final decision to Congress. This action has quelled market participant’s fear of another potential military quagmire allowing inflows to the Dollar as a relief rally. Economic news around the globe during Monday’s US holiday was Dollar negative, but the Dollar still managed a slight increase reinforcing its strength. If the US data today, namely the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending, come in slightly better than expectations it will give the Dollar yet another boost higher as Dollar sentiment continues to be generally positive. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of August 27th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 11,410 contracts, a decrease of 683 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 17,458 contracts, a decrease of 616 contracts. The Nonreportable traders were net long 6,049 contracts, an increase of 68 contracts. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 17,459 contracts. This represents a decrease of 615 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook
USD (SEP): The cross over and close above the 40-day moving average indicates the longerterm trend has turned up. The upside crossover (9 above 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term uptrend. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next upside objective is 82.52. The next area of resistance is around 82.33 and 82.52, while 1st support hits today at 81.95 and below there at 81.74.