Despite briefly popping above the $0.8997 initial resistance level yesterday the AUD/USD failed to hold above and also failed to test the 21-DMA before dipping a little. We will now look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease the bearish focus while back above the $0.9100 level is needed to shift overall focus back to the $0.9315-43 region. Daily tech studies are noted at oversold levels and this could see the pair supported on further attempts lower for now.
R 4: $0.9159 – Hourly resistance Aug 19
R 3: $0.9100 – Hourly resistance Aug 20
R 2: $0.9042 – 21 day moving average
R 1: $0.9011 – High Sept 2
Latest price: $0.8981
S 1: $0.8957 – Hourly resistance/support
S 2: $0.8895 – Low Aug 28
S 3: $0.8868 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: $0.8850 – 2013 low Aug 5
With the Ichimoku cloud base heading higher we will now look for a close above the $0.7887 resistance level to relieve the immediate bearish focus for the NZD/USD that then sees immediate focus shift to the 21-DMA and the $0.7937 previous daily support. A close above this level is needed to end bearish hopes and see the overall focus return to the Aug monthly highs. Oversold daily tech studies are noted and could provide support on dips.
R 4: $0.7915 – 21 day moving average
R 3: $0.7907 – Ichimoku cloud base
R 2: $0.7887 – Daily support/ resistance
R 1: $0.7840 – High Aug 29
Latest price: 0.7809
S 1: $0.7791 – Hourly support Sept 2
S 2: $0.7730 – Low Aug 30
S 3: $0.7685 – 2013 Low June 24
S 4: $0.7621 – Low June 8 2012
AUD/NZD briefly traded above the falling daily trend line before dipping below NZ$1.1480 late in NY holiday trading. Overall we will continue to look for a close above the NZ$1.1640 high from July 22 to confirm a break of the falling daily trend line and 55-DMA and see immediate focus return to the NZ$1.1748 level last seen in early/mid July.The NZ$1.1422-33 region remains key support and O/B daily tech studies are noted.
R 4: NZ$1.1748 – High July 11
R 3: NZ$1.1640 – High July 22
R 2: NZ$1.1574 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: NZ$1.1535 – Falling daily trend line
Latest price: NZ$1.1496
S 1: NZ$1.1433 – Low Aug 29
S 2: NZ$1.1423 – 21 day moving average
S 3: NZ$1.1361 – Low Aug 21
S 4: NZ$1.1265 – Low Aug 7
AUD/JPY has bounced back towards the falling daily channel top to start the new week and we will look for a close above the Aug 19 high to confirm a break of the channel top and the 55-DMA (Y89.94). A close above Y90.13 sees overall focus shift to the Y92.70-94.10 region with weekly and monthly highs and the 100 and 200-DMA’s noted in this region. Back below the Y88.00 level is needed to relieve pressure on the channel top.
R 4: Y92.70 – High July 24
R 3: Y91.07 – High July 29
R 2: Y90.13 – High Aug 19
R 1: Y89.66 – Falling daily channel top
Latest price: Y89.33
S 1: Y89.00 – Hourly support Sept 2
S 2: Y88.00 – Hourly breakout level Sept 2
S 3: Y87.27 – Low Aug 29
S 4: Y86.77 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
The break below the Aug 8 low saw USD/KRW pause ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, but the break lower sees the pair on target to eventually break the Fibo and test the Feb 28 low. A close back above the Krw1108.3 previous support is needed to signal false break and see immediate focus return to tests of the Krw1121 level. Overall the Krw1130.1 level remains key resistance with a close above needed to end bearish aspirations.
R 4: Krw1121.5 – 100 day moving average
R 3: Krw1121.0 – High Aug 23
R 2: Krw1108.3 – Daily support/resistance
R 1: Krw1104.9 – 200 day moving average
Latest price: Krw1098.5
S 1: Krw1097.1 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1054.6-1166.0 move
S 2: Krw1081.6 – Low Feb 28
S 3: Krw1071.2 – Daily support/resistance
S 4: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
USD/SGD dipped below the 21-DMA to start the week and we will continue to look for a daily close below to confirm a shift lower in focus that targets the layers of support in the Sgd1.2550-94 support region. Initial resistance is noted at the Aug 30 high and a close back above is needed to kick start topside momentum and re-confirm bullish focus. Daily tech studies continue to correct lower which is of some concern for the overall bullish continuation.
R 4: Sgd1.2863 – 200 week moving average
R 3: Sgd1.2860 – 2013 high Aug 22
R 2: Sgd1.2791 – High Aug 29
R 1: Sgd1.2768 – High Aug 30
Latest price: Sgd1.2729
S 1: Sgd1.2724 – 21 day moving average
S 2: Sgd1.2694 – Low Aug 19
S 3: Sgd1.2594 – 100 day moving average
S 4: Sgd1.2564 – Low Aug 12