The Dollar has held within a fairly tight trading range during the overnight session, and has been able to generally hold its ground after yesterday’s strong upside move. While this morning’s UK Parliamentary “no” vote may have cast some doubt over near-term military intervention in Syria, the Dollar has seen relatively little erosion in safe-haven support. US economic data took on a decidedly positive tone with yesterday’s Jobless Claims reading and GDP revision, which has kept the Dollar fairly buoyant going into the holiday weekend. Today’s slate of US numbers will need to sustain that vibe, particularly with Consumer Sentiment, as this week’s price action indicates that the Dollar will need to string together good data results in order to reinforce the idea of a September start to Fed tapering measures. End of week and month profit-taking may take further steam out of the Dollar later today but as long as US data results do not disappoint the market, the markets should be looking at a healthy weekly gain in the Dollar later today. The Dollar may bounce back to the 82.15 level later this morning, but may need an additional boost from fresh safe-haven flows or from data in order to reach new high ground by the close.
Technical Outlook
USD (SEP): Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The near-term upside objective is at 82.77. The next area of resistance is around 82.43 and 82.77, while 1st support hits today at 81.58 and below there at 81.08.