The attempt higher for the AUD/USD to start the week briefly popped above the 21-DMA before heading lower to be little changed from Monday’s opening levels. We will continue to look for a close above the $0.9100 level as confirmation of break of the 21-DMA and a shift in overall focus back to the key $0.9315-43 region. While the $0.9100 level caps we will continue to look for dips back towards the layers of support noted in the $0.8850-0.8910 region.
R 4: $0.9179 – 55 day moving average
R 3: $0.9159 – Hourly resistance Aug 19
R 2: $0.9100 – Hourly resistance Aug 20
R 1: $0.9059 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: $0.9028
S 1: $0.9003 – Hourly support Aug 26
S 2: $0.8971 – Low Aug 23
S 3: $0.8910 – Low Aug 6
S 4: $0.8879 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
NZD/USD: Monday’s move higher paused at the Ichimoku cloud base ($0.7872) overnight. We continue to look for a close above the $0.7945 resistance level to shift overall focus higher with the 21-DMA also noted just above. While this level caps immediate focus remains on spikes below the 21 day lower Bollinger band as the Kiwi targets retests of the 2013 lows. Initial resistance remains at the Ichimoku cloud base.
R 4: $0.7945 – Hourly resistance Aug 21
R 3: $0.7904 – 55 day moving average
R 2: $0.7887 – Daily support/resistance
R 1: $0.7872 – Ichimoku cloud base
Latest price: $0.7858
S 1: $0.7772 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 2: $0.7733 – Low July 15
S 3: $0.7685 – 2013 Low June 24
S 4: $0.7621 – Low June 8 2012
AUD/NZD: The recovery from lows failed at the falling daily trend line to start the new week hinting at cracks in the move higher. The NZ$1.1483 support remains key with a close below confirming a shift lower in focus once more, with overall focus then returning to tests of the NZ$1.1185-1.1265 support region. With layers of resistance noted NZ$1.1582-1.1640 we will look for close above NZ$1.1640 to shift focus to the NZ$1.1750 level.
R 4: NZ$1.1748 – High July 11
R 3: NZ$1.1640 – High July 22
R 2: NZ$1.1615 – 55 day moving average
R 1: NZ$1.1582 – Falling daily trend line
Latest price: NZ$1.1488
S 1: NZ$1.1483 – Hourly support Aug 23
S 2: NZ$1.1361 – Low Aug 21
S 3: NZ$1.1265 – Low Aug 7
S 4: NZ$1.1238 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
AUD/JPY pulled back from ahead of Friday’s high to start the new week but remains supported ahead of the 21-DMA. Layers of resistance remain in the Y90.13-91.07 region and with previous daily highs, the 55-DMA (Y90.21) and the falling daily trend line off April monthly highs in the Y90.13-91.07 region, a break higher would be significant. Below Thursday’s low is needed to re-confirm the current bearish focus.
R 4: Y90.43 – Falling daily trend line off Apr high
R 3: Y90.29 – High July 30
R 2: Y90.13 – High Aug 19
R 1: Y89.41 – High Aug 23
Latest price: Y88.83
S 1: Y88.61 – 21 day moving average
S 2: Y87.41 – Low Aug 22
S 3: Y87.04 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: Y86.43 – 2013 low Aug 7
USD/KRW: A close above the Krw1130.1 level remains needed to end bearish hopes and see the overall focus shift higher to tests of the 2013 high, with immediate focus turning to a retest of the Krw1143.3 high from July 10. For now, immediate focus remains on the Aug 16 low with a break lower then seeing a test of the 200-DMA looking more likely. Overall while the Krw1130.1 resistance level caps a move back to Krw1081.7 May monthly lows remains favoured.
R 4: Krw1130.1 – Daily support/resistance
R 3: Krw1128.0 – High July 18
R 2: Krw1124.0 – Ichimoku cloud base
R 1: Krw1121.0 – High Aug 23
Latest price: Krw1114.5
S 1: Krw1111.8 – Low Aug 16
S 2: Krw1108.3 – Low Aug 8
S 3: Krw1105.0 – Daily resistance/support
S 4: Krw1104.2 – 200 day moving average
Overbought daily tech studies are a concern for USD/SGD with the pair failing just ahead of Sgd1.2820 to start the new week and lacking follow through. A close above Sgd1.2820 is needed to confirm bullish focus. We will continue to look for a close below the Sgd1.2736 level to shift focus back to layers of support in the Sgd1.2550-74 region with 100-DMA (Sgd1.2574), Ichimoku cloud base and previous daily lows noted in this region.
R 4: Sgd1.2899 – High June 5 2012
R 3: Sgd1.2869 – 200 week moving average
R 2: Sgd1.2860 – 2013 high Aug 22
R 1: Sgd1.2820 – Hourly resistance Aug 23
Latest price: Sgd1.2805
S 1: Sgd1.2736 – Low Aug 20
S 2: Sgd1.2705 – 21 day moving average
S 3: Sgd1.2695 – Low Aug 19
S 4: Sgd1.2574 – 100 day moving average