The Dollar is having a relatively quiet finish to a choppy and volatile trading week, and while showing few signs of early strength this morning it is still on-course for posting a moderate weekly gain. While this week’s limited selection of US data had only one really strong result from Existing Home Sales, there were no negative surprises that could have derailed Fed tapering prospects. With the Jackson Hole symposium unlikely to provide any market-shaking Fed rhetoric, this week’s release of FOMC minutes continues to provide some measure of underlying support for the Dollar heading into the weekend. In spite of emerging market turbulence, safe-haven support remains a background issue for the Dollar. Therefore today’s New Home Sales reading needs to at least maintain the recent theme of steady US growth that was initially put in place from this week’s US data points. The Dollar may rise up towards the 81.66 level with a positive take on this morning’s US housing data, but it needs to see consistent strength from upcoming US economic numbers in order to make any decisive rally above and beyond these current price levels.
Technical Outlook
USD (SEP): The daily stochastics gave a bullish indicator with a crossover up. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold levels, which is bullish and should support higher prices. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside target is 82.12. The next area of resistance is around 81.76 and 82.12, while 1st support hits today at 81.23 and below there at 81.05.