The Dollar has been unable to make much headway to the upside early this week, and has once again found itself under moderate pressure coming into this morning’s trading. There has been little in the way of fresh US economic data or Fed commentary to reinforce the case for near-term tapering, and a pullback in US longerterm yields is adding to the Dollar’s headwinds early in today’s trading. While emerging markets remain squarely on the defensive this week, the Yen appears to have the upper hand on the Dollar for being the safe-haven destination of choice. A series of same-store sales readings and the Chicago Fed’s National Activity index may provide some modest benefit to the Dollar later today, but the markets may be waiting on the FOMC meeting minutes and for “top-tier” data later this week before prices have an opportunity to lift decisively clear of these current price levels. The Dollar may find support around the 80.92 level later this morning, but may find just enough of a safe-haven vibe from beaten-down emerging markets to avoid reaching a new low for the move later on in today’s session.
Technical Outlook
USD (SEP): Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the shortterm trend remains negative. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next downside objective is 81.05. The next area of resistance is around 81.40 and 81.53, while 1st support hits today at 81.17 and below there at 81.05.