The Dollar is grinding out a modest gain this morning, but at this point is barely higher for the week after yesterday’s steep reversal obliterated most of its recent gains. While some of yesterday’s more Fed-sensitive economic numbers showed some positive results, a bad miss on the Philly Fed survey highlighted a generally weak day for manufacturing data that swiftly derailed Dollar sentiment. There will be two key US data points this morning with Housing Starts and Consumer Sentiment that could provide a late-week boost, but this week’s mixed results with US data has left the Dollar still looking for traction in order to lift clear of these recent low price levels. Unless safe-haven support becomes a front-and-center market factor once again, the Dollar may have to wait to see a more consistently stronger tone from US economic data to fully regain upside momentum. The Dollar may rise up towards the 81.45 level, but has plenty of work ahead of it to regain the positive tone seen earlier this week.
Technical Outlook
USD (SEP): Daily momentum studies are on the rise from low levels and should accelerate a move higher on a push through the 1st swing resistance. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The outside day down and close below the previous day’s low is a negative signal. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The near-term upside objective is at 82.24. The next area of resistance is around 81.61 and 82.24, while 1st support hits today at 80.74 and below there at 80.49.