AUD/USD: The close below Monday’s low sees the continuation of the recovery off the 2013 lows in doubt with immediate focus having shifted to a test of the $0.8970 Aug 8 low. A close back above resistance noted on the hourly time frame at $0.9157 from Aug 12 is needed to see immediate focus return to retests of the $0.9214-18 region and overall focus back to the key $0.9315-43 region. Daily tech studies are at more neutral levels and no longer seen as an issue.
R 4: $0.9315 – High July 24
R 3: $0.9265 – 55 day moving average
R 2: $0.9221 – High Aug 12
R 1: $0.9157 – Hourly resistance Aug 12
Latest price: 0.9095
S 1: $0.9074 – Low Aug 13
S 2: $0.8970 – Low Aug 8
S 3: $0.8880 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: $0.8850 – 2013 low Aug 5
NZD/USD: Following double daily top at $0.8056 and the failure ahead of the 50% Fibo level the pair has dipped to the Aug 9 lows. The move lower relieves the previous immediate bullish focus with a break below the $0.7933 level needed to confirm a shift in focus back to the $0.7685-28 region. Initial resistance remains at the $0.8011 level with a close back above needed to target retests of the now key $0.8056-64 resistance region.
R 4: $0.8120 – 100 day moving average
R 3: $0.8105 – Monthly high July 25
R 2: $0.8064 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement $0.8676-0.7685
R 1: $0.8011 – Hourly resistance Aug 12
Latest price: 0.7959
S 1: $0.7933 – Low Aug 9 & 13
S 2: $0.7918 – Previous hourly res now sup
S 3: $0.7887 – Low Aug 7
S 4: $0.7842 – Ichimoku cloud base
AUD/NZD continues to hesitate ahead of the 21-DMA and we will continue to look for a close above the somewhat pivotal NZ$1.1490 resistance for confirmation of a break of the 21-DMA and a shift higher in focus to the layers of resistance in the NZ$1.1640-1.1748 region. While NZ$1.1490 continues to cap, potential remains for a retest of the 2013 lows and we look for a close below the Aug 13 low as confirmation of a fresh leg lower.
R 4: NZ$1.1640 – High July 22
R 3: NZ$1.1541 – Previous daily sup now res
R 2: NZ$1.1490 – Hourly resistance Aug 5
R 1: NZ$1.1467 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: 1.1416
S 1: NZ$1.1400 – Low Aug 13
S 2: NZ$1.1330 – Hourly support Aug 8
S 3: NZ$1.1265 – Low Aug 7
S 4: NZ$1.1193 – 2013 low Aug 1
AUD/JPY: Oversold daily tech studies are correcting higher with the pair having broken and closed above the previous Y89.04 resistance level. Since breaking higher aussie-yen found support at the Y89.04 level and closes in NY on a bullish note. Layers of resistance remain in the Y90.29-93.80 region including previous daily highs, key moving averages and the falling daily trend line. A close back below the Y89.04 level is needed to shift focus lower once more.
R 4: Y91.27 – 55 day moving average
R 3: Y91.07 – High July 29
R 2: Y90.29 – High July 30
R 1: Y89.92 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: 89.36
S 1: Y89.04 – Daily support
S 2: Y87.75 – Low Aug 9
S 3: Y86.43 – Low Aug 7
S 4: Y86.32 – 100 week moving average
USD/KRW: The recovery from the Krw1108.3 level continues with the pair having entered the Krw1117.1-1130.1 resistance region. The dollar-won tested the falling daily channel top yesterday and has close above the 21-DMA as daily tech studies correct higher. The Krw1130.1 level remains key with a close above needed to see initial focus shift to tests of the Krw1143.3 July 10 high with the Ichimoku cloud top noted just below at Krw1142.0.
R 4: Krw1130.1 – Daily resistance
R 3: Krw1128.0 – High July 18
R 2: Krw1122.9 – 100 day moving average
R 1: Krw1119.5 – Falling daily channel top
Latest price: 1119.3
S 1: Krw1108.3 – Low Aug 8
S 2: Krw1105.0 – Alternating daily resistance/support
S 3: Krw1102.6 – 200 day moving average
S 4: Krw1097.1 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 1054.5-1166.0
USD/SGD followed up the pause ahead of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level to start the new week with a solid bounce back towards the Sgd1.2699 resistance level and managing a bullish NY close above the 21-DMA in the process. A close above Sgd1.2699 remains needed to end hopes of further tests of layers of support Sgd1.2546-63 and see initial focus turn to retests of the Sgd1.2768 level with overall focus returning to 2013 highs.
R 4: Sgd1.2768 – High Aug 1
R 3: Sgd1.2750 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: Sgd1.2737 – High Aug 5
R 1: Sgd1.2699 – Daily resistance
Latest price: 1.2672
S 1: Sgd1.2620 – Hourly support Aug 13
S 2: Sgd1.2563 – 50% retracement of 1.2268-1.2858 move
S 3: Sgd1.2550 – Low June 19
S 4: Sgd1.2546 – 100 day moving average