AUD/USD continues lower with the $0.8771 Aug 2010 monthly lows targeted. The closes below the 21 day lower Bolli ($0.8970) continue but chasing the pair lower is not advised with spikes back above the lower Bolli a better option for setting shorts. Layers of resistance on the hourly timeframe are indicative of sellers and trailing stop placement but the much talked above $0.9300-43 region remains key resistance.
R 4: $0.9100 – Hourly resistance July 30
R 3: $0.9047 – Hourly resistance July 31
R 2: $0.9001 – Previous hourly sup now res
R 1: $0.8990 – High Aug 1
Latest price: 0.8935
S 1: $0.8907 – 2013 Low Aug 1
S 2: $0.8771 – Monthly low Aug 25 2010
S 3: $0.8634 – Low July 19 2010
S 4: $0.8317 – Low July 1 2010
NZD/USD: The close back below the $0.7905 level sees the focus shift lower for the kiwi as the pair closes below the 21-DMA ($0.7908) and the Ichimoku cloud base ($0.7929) with a test of the 2013 lows now targeted. Correcting overbought daily RSI, slow stochastic and momentum studies are likely to be weighing and will add weight to the shift lower in focus. A close back above the $0.8038 resistance level is needed to shift focus higher.
R 4: $0.8105 – High July 25 & 26
R 3: $0.8038 – High July 30
R 2: $0.8015 – High July 31
R 1: $0.7925 – Previous hourly sup now res
Latest price: 0.7895
S 1: $0.7844 – Low July 17
S 2: $0.7733 – Low July 15
S 3: $0.7716 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: $0.7685 – 2013 Low June 24
AUD/NZD: With daily and weekly tech studies at very oversold levels the pair was ripe for a bounce with short covering seen pushing the pair higher yesterday. The overall focus will remain on a test of the 2008 lows until the aussie-kiwi can close back above the NZ$1.1493 July 26 high. A close above this level would then see focus ratchet higher to the NZ$1.1740-50 region with the MT falling daily trend line also noted in this region.
R 4: NZ$1.1493 – High July 26
R 3: NZ$1.1394 – Previous daily sup now res
R 2: NZ$1.1375 – Hourly resistance July 30
R 1: NZ$1.1353 – High Aug 1
Latest price: 1.1309
S 1: NZ$1.1193 – 2013 Low Aug 1
S 2: NZ$1.1135 – Low Oct 29 2008
S 3: NZ$1.0936 – Low Oct 24 2008
S 4: NZ$1.0893 – Low Oct 16 2008
AUD/JPY bounced back towards the July 31 high to start the new month and we will now look for a close back above this level today to relieve the immediate bearish focus and see the pair look to bounce back towards the Jpy91.07-37 region with the 21-DMA noted at Jpy91.17. Overall layers of resistance remain in the Jpy92.70-93.59 region which is seen as key for a shift higher in focus, initially back to the Jpy96.00 level.
R 4: Jpy91.37 – Previous daily sup now res
R 3: Jpy91.07 – High July 29
R 2: Jpy90.29 – High July 30
R 1: Jpy89.04 – High July 31
Latest price: 88.94
S 1: Jpy87.38 – 2013 Low Aug 1
S 2: Jpy85.27 – Low Nov 28 2012
S 3: Jpy83.57 – Falling daily channel base
S 4: Jpy81.99 – Low Nov 9 2012
USD/KRW again paused ahead of layers of resistance in the Krw1128.0-1130.1 region with previously daily highs and lows, the falling daily channel top and 55-DMA noted in this region. A close above is needed to see initial focus turn to the Krw1143.3 high from July 10 with overall focus returning to tests of the 2013 high. A break higher is now favoured with a close below yesterday’s low needed to negate this view.
R 4: Krw1153.2 – High July 5
R 3: Krw1143.3 – High July 10
R 2: Krw1130.1 – Previous daily sup now res
R 1: Krw1128.0 – High July 18
Latest price: 1123.7
S 1: Krw1119.7 – Low July 1
S 2: Krw1108.4 – Low June 7
S 3: Krw1102.1 – 200 day moving average
S 4: Krw1097.1 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 1054.5-1166.0
USD/SGD found support at the Sgd1.2700 level after having broken higher on Wednesday with the initial focus firmly on retests of the 2013 high. The 21 day upper Bollinger band is now starting to head higher with spikes above expected, but it should be noted that closes above are a rarity so avoid chasing higher when the pair is trading above the upper Bolli. Back below the Sgd1.2699 level is needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus.
R 4: Sgd1.2970 – Monthly high June 1 2012
R 3: Sgd1.2895 – 200 week moving average
R 2: Sgd1.2858 – 2013 high July 8
R 1: Sgd1.2805 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
Latest price: 1.2759
S 1: Sgd1.2699 – Low July 31
S 2: Sgd1.2631 – Rising daily trend line
S 3: Sgd1.2563 – 50% retracement of 1.2268-1.2858 move
S 4: Sgd1.2550 – Low June 19