AUD/USD managed an inside day on Friday after failing ahead of the $0.9303-43 region and this region remains key to the direction for the pair this week. While it caps further tests of the 2013 low are favoured as is an eventual break lower that targets the $0.8770-00 region. Daily tech studies have worked off their previously oversold condition and are now well placed for another leg lower. Above $0.9343 sees focus shift higher to the $0.9665 level.
R 4: $0.9665 – High June 6
R 3: $0.9609 – 38.2% Retracement of 1.0582-0.9008 move
R 2: $0.9343 – High June 26
R 1: $0.9303 – High July 11
Latest price: 0.9175
S 1: $0.9140 – Low July 18
S 2: $0.9087 – Low July 15
S 3: $0.9043 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: $0.9008 – 2013 low July 12
NZD/USD is trading around the Friday NY closing level after the spike above the $0.7967 level to end the week lacked follow through. As a result we will now look for a close above Friday’s high to shift focus away from potential retests of the 2013 lows. Initial support remains at the $0.7844 low from Wednesday and a close back below this level would re-confirm the bearish focus. Layers of resistance remain above the $0.8154 level.
R 4: $0.8154 – High May 29
R 3: $0.8064 – 38.2% Retracement of 0.8676-0.7685 move
R 2: $0.8052 – High June 19
R 1: $0.7988 – High July 19
Latest price: 0.7905
S 1: $0.7844 – Low July 17
S 2: $0.7733 – Low July 15
S 3: $0.7685 – 2013 low June 21
S 4: $0.7621 – Low June 8 2012
AUD/JPY is finding support ahead of the Jpy91.48 level with a close below needed to reconfirm the bearish focus which will target retests of the Jpy88.80-00 region. Topside the Jpy93.02-21 region remains key with the 200-DMA noted at Jpy93.21. A close above this region is needed to see the immediate focus shift to the July high June 6 high with the falling daily trend line off the 2013 high noted just below at Jpy94.45
R 4: Jpy94.66 – High June 6
R 3: Jpy93.79 – High June 10
R 2: Jpy93.21 – 200 day moving average
R 1: Jpy93.02 – High July 9
Latest price: 92.27
S 1: Jpy91.48 – Low July 17
S 2: Jpy90.82 – Low July 16
S 3: Jpy89.76 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: Jpy89.61 – Low June 25
For USD/KRW this week the Krw1130.1 resistance level remains key with a close above needed to relieve the current bearish focus while a close above the July 10 high is needed to shift overall focus higher once more. While the Krw1130.1 level caps we favour a test of the 200-DMA with a close below then seeing focus ratchet lower to the 1077.0-1081.7 region. The only concern for the pair is the oversold daily tech studies that are looking to correct.
R 4: Krw1153.2 – High July 5
R 3: Krw1143.3 – High July 10
R 2: Krw1139.1 – 21 day moving average
R 1: Krw1130.1 – Previous daily sup now res
Latest price: 1120.5
S 1: Krw1114.6 – Low July 16
S 2: Krw1110.2 – 50% Fibonacci retracement 1054.5-1166.0
S 3: Krw1108.4 – Low June 7
S 4: Krw1101.5 – 200 day moving average
USD/SGD managed a spike above the 21-DMA to end the week before closing little changed from Thursday’s NY close. We continue to favour further spikes lower and a break below the Sgd1.2550 support until the pair can manage a close back above the Sgd1.2721 resistance level from July 11. A break below the Sgd1.2550 support sees overall focus shift back to the Sgd1.2386-07 region.
R 4: Sgd1.2909 – 200 week moving average
R 3: Sgd1.2858 – 2013 high July 8
R 2: Sgd1.2721 – High July 11
R 1: Sgd1.2693 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: 1.2640
S 1: Sgd1.2563 – 50% retracement of 1.2268-1.2858 move
S 2: Sgd1.2550 – Low June 19
S 3: Sgd1.2514 – 100 day moving average
S 4: Sgd1.2482 – Low June 13