The ABS’s job vacancies series fell 7.3% over the three months to May to be 19.3% lower over the year. This is a very weak result – indeed it would suggest, in isolation, significant falls in employment over the coming months. There does, however, seem to be some residual seasonality in the data – with May 2010, 2011, 2012 and now 2013 all printing on the weak side. It is also at odds with our tracking of 11 monthly indicators of labour demand which suggest employment growth of ~4k a month. Either way, pressure on the unemployment rate remains to the upside.
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Deutsche Bank