USD/JPY Analysis

The pair closed in NY Monday at Y97.73 after rate had seen three stop loss runs lower, the rate eventually posting lows at Y97.21, before it rebounded in a euro-yen led move to Y97.87. Rate came under fresh sell pressure into early Asia as traders positioned for an expected negative Nikkei open, as well as being a Goto-bi day with expected sales to be seen at the fix. Nikkei did open lower but dollar-yen met decent demand around Y97.50 (despite the Nikkei breaking under 13000) before rate bounced, aided by a Nikkei recovery as relief was felt in early trade that the Shanghai Index hadn’t come under any major pressure at its open. Dollar-yen recovered to Y98.06, aided by traders that gunned for euro-yen stops above Y128.50 (rate trading up to Y128.67), before selling emerged post fix to press dollar-yen down to Y97.28, with the Shanghai Index leading as it picked up downside momentum. Dollar-yen recovered to Y97.58, settling around Y97.40 into Europe. Equity tracking will move over to UST yield plays into the afternoon with focus on US durable goods and consumer confidence data.