Short-Run Slowdown, Better Growth Ahead
For the current quarter, we estimate economic growth has slowed to 1.5 percent, but will then resume its 2-percent-plus pace that is characteristic of the past three years. In addition, our outlook for 2014 is for another step-up in growth. In the short run, we expect a slowdown in consumer spending and equipment & software spending and continued contraction of government spending. The housing recovery continues to be the big positive story of 2013. On a strategic level, sustained, below-trend economic growth continues to characterize this entire recovery/expansion period. Estimates of potential GDP for the long run, based upon labor force and productivity trends, suggest a slower pace than in the earlier post-WWII period and that sets a new top-line guidepost to effective strategic thinking for both the private and public sectors.
Read the full report: Economic Research
Wells Fargo