AUD/USD: The pair pulled back from ahead of the $0.9391 level yesterday with the 21-DMA noted just above at $0.9810. The $0.9530 2013 low remains key support for the pair with a close below needed to kick start bearish momentum and see the focus shift back to the 2011 low. For now we should expect to see further sideways trading within a broad $0.9530- 0.9791 range as the 21 day lower Bollinger band and other daily tech studies correct higher.
R 4: $0.9918 – High May 15
R 3: $0.9855 – 38.2% retracement of 1.0382-0.9530 move
R 2: $0.9838 – High May 21
R 1: $0.9791 – High June 3
Latest price: 0.9648
S 1: $0.9530 – 2013 low May 29
S 2: $0.9488 – Low Oct 5 2011
S 3: $0.9448 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: $0.9397 – 2011 Low Oct 4
NZD/USD: The $0.8154-0.8211 resistance region remains key for the NZD with the 21-DMA noted at $0.8166. We will look for a close above the $0.8211 level to confirm a bounce is underway although layers of resistance will need to be dealt with in the $0.8287-0.8356 region including the 100 and 200-DMA’s and 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Daily tech studies are correcting from oversold and are supportive of a bounce.
R 4: $0.8286 – 200 day moving average
R 3: $0.8211 – High May 21
R 2: $0.8166 – 21 day moving average
R 1: $0.8154 – High May 29
Latest price: 0.8010
S 1: $0.7942 – Monthly low May 31
S 2: $0.7917 – Low Sept 5 2012
S 3: $0.7813 – Low July 25 2012
S 4: $0.7761 – 200 week moving average
AUD/JPY: The pair continues to remain heavy despite the very oversold daily slow stochastic, RSI and momentum studies, with a break lower remaining favoured that initially targets a test of the falling daily channel base. Overall we are looking for a continuation lower that sees the 200-DMA retested with a close back above the falling daily channel top and 21-DMA needed to negate this view and shift focus back to the Jpy102.90 level.
R 4: Jpy101.6 – High May 15
R 3: Jpy99.48 – High May 24
R 2: Jpy99.40 – 21 day moving average
R 1: Jpy97.93 – High May 30
Latest price: 96.65
S 1: Jpy96.02 – Low June 3
S 2: Jpy93.53 – Falling daily channel base
S 3: Jpy92.50 – Low Jan 16
S 4: Jpy91.49 – 200 day moving average
USD/KRW: Although the cross continues to hesitate ahead of the 21-DMA, while the pair remains capped at the Krw1137.1 level and the daily slow stochastic, RSI and momentum studies slowly correct from overbought levels, a break lower remains favoured that initially targets the 200-DMA. A close below the 200-DMA is needed to shift focus back to the Krw1077-81 region.
R 4: Krw1153.5 – High July 25 2012
R 3: Krw1147.2 – 2013 high Apr 8
R 2: Krw1142.8 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: Krw1137.1 – High May 29
Latest price: 1125.1
S 1: Krw1117.1 – 21 day moving average
S 2: Krw1110.5 – Low May 21
S 3: Krw1105.0 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 4: Krw1099.4 – 200 day moving average
USD/SGD: The pair is unchanged from Monday’s closing level in NY and consolidated at the lower end of the sharp dip to the Sgd1.2494 level which is also now noted as initial support. A close back above the June 3 high remains needed to signal a false break and see focus return to the recent 2013 high. Immediate focus remains on layers of support remain in the Sgd1.2416-42 region including a previous daily low and the Ichimoku cloud top.
R 4: Sgd1.2748 – High July 6 2012
R 3: Sgd1.2728 – High July 12-13 2012
R 2: Sgd1.2637 – High June 3
R 1: Sgd1.2570 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: 1.2524
S 1: Sgd1.2494 – Low June 3
S 2: Sgd1.2442 – 61.8% retracement of 1.2268-1.2699 move
S 3: Sgd1.2419 – 100 day moving average
S 4: Sgd1.2359 – Previous daily resistance now support