AUD/USD: The pair has bounced sharply from a dip below the $0.9600 level again, finding support ahead of the 2012 low. Support in the $0.9584-98 region will be the key to whether the AUD/USD bounces or takes out stops below $0.9570 and then targets the $0.9488 level. The pair needs to close back above the May 23 high to signal a correction is underway with focus then shifting to a retest of the $0.9838 level.
R 4: $1.0025 – High May 13
R 3: $0.9918 – High May 15
R 2: $0.9838 – High May 21
R 1: $0.9770 – High May 23
Latest price: 0.9605
S 1: $0.9598 – Low May 28
S 2: $0.9584 – 2012 Low June 1
S 3: $0.9488 – Low Oct 5 2011
S 4: $0.9475 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
NZD/USD: The $0.8010 low from last week remains key for the pair, and with daily technical studies slowly heading higher from very oversold levels, the longer the pair remains above the $0.8010 level the greater the chance of a bounce. The $0.8288-0.8365 region represents layers of resistance for the pair including 21, 100 and 200-DMA’s as well as daily highs and lows and should prove tough going if a bounce occurs.
R 4: $0.8356 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: $0.8317 – High May 13
R 2: $0.8288 – 200 day moving average
R 1: $0.8211 – High May 21
Latest price: 0.8085
S 1: $0.8010 – 2013 low May 23
S 2: $0.7936 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: $0.7917 – Low Sept 5 2012
S 4: $0.7813 – Low July 25 2012
AUD/JPY: The cross has closed back above the 100-DMA following a bounce from initial support but still needs to close back above the 21-DMA and falling daily trend line to see the focus shift back to the Jpy102.30-60 region. The falling daily channel base comes in around the March monthly low today and makes an ideal downside target with a break below then seeing the 200-DMA come into the picture.
R 4: Jpy102.3 – High May 3
R 3: Jpy101.6 – High May 15
R 2: Jpy100.4 – 21 day moving average
R 1: Jpy99.48 – High May 24
Latest price: 98.24
S 1: Jpy96.95 – Low Apr 2
S 2: Jpy94.30 – Falling daily channel base
S 3: Jpy92.50 – Low Jan 16
S 4: Jpy91.11 – 200 day moving average
USD/KRW: A close back below the Krw1110.5 level remains needed to signal that a correction is underway. It is worth noting that the 100-DMA, 200-DMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Krw1054.5-1147.2 move all come in around the Krw1100 level and a close below would see focus turn to the Krw1077-82 support region. Topside the pair needs to close above the Krw1133.6 level to kick start topside momentum and see the 2013 highs retested.
R 4: Krw1153.5 – High July 25 2012
R 3: Krw1147.2 – 2013 high Apr 8
R 2: Krw1133.6 – High Apr 12
R 1: Krw1132.9 – 200 week moving average
Latest price: 1132.5
S 1: Krw1110.5 – Low May 21
S 2: Krw1105.0 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 3: Krw1099.5 – 200 day moving average
S 4: Krw1081.6 – Low Feb 28
USD/SGD: The Sgd1.2579 level confirmed its significance as a support level with the USD/SGD having bounced from just short of this level back towards last week’s 2013 high. Despite the very overbought daily tech studies, while the Sgd1.2579 level continues to support, higher levels will remain favoured with the immediate focus on the Sgd1.2728-48 region and the 21 day upper Bollinger band noted around Sgd1.2741. Back below Sgd1.2579 targets Sgd1.2421-41.
R 4: Sgd1.2846 – High June 25 2012
R 3: Sgd1.2748 – High July 6 2012
R 2: Sgd1.2741 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: Sgd1.2728 – High July 12-13 2012
Latest price: 1.2695
S 1: Sgd1.2579 – Low May 22
S 2: Sgd1.2534 – 38.2% retracement of 1.2268-1.2699 move
S 3: Sgd1.2507 – Low May 17
S 4: Sgd1.2440 – Low May 16