AUD/USD: Yesterday’s sharp move lower for the AUD/USD fell just short of the 2012 low before bouncing off the 21 day lower Bollinger band to the day’s highs. Given that we have been targeting the 2012 low and that very oversold daily tech studies are slowly correcting, combined with the sharp bounce from fresh lows, the pair could be setting up for a correction back towards the $1.0096-1.0155 region. Back above the May 21 would confirm a correction is underway.
R 4: $1.0096 – High May 10
R 3: $1.0025 – High May 13
R 2: $0.9918 – High May 15
R 1: $0.9838 – High May 21
Latest price: 0.9740
S 1: $0.9601 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 2: $0.9584 – 2012 Low June 1
S 3: $0.9488 – Low Oct 5 2011
S 4: $0.9397 – 2011 Low Oct 4 2011
NZD/USD: The pair dipped to the lowest level since early Sept 2012 before bouncing sharply to the day’s highs. The pair needs to close above the May 21 high to relieve the immediate bearish focus. Correcting daily slow stochastic, momentum and RSI indicators combined with the sharp bounce from fresh lows yesterday are a concern and could be hinting at a correction back towards the
$0.8317-56 resistance region.
R 4: $0.8356 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: $0.8317 – High May 13
R 2: $0.8288 – 200 day moving average
R 1: $0.8211 – High May 21
Latest price: 0.8120
S 1: $0.8010 – 2013 low May 23
S 2: $0.8004 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: $0.7917 – Low Sept 5 2012
S 4: $0.7813 – Low July 25 2012
AUD/JPY: After having broken below the rising daily trend line that previously supported the AUD/JPY has remained capped by the 21-DMA with the result being a sharp dip towards the Apr 2 lows. The sharp bounce off the lows is a concern for a continuation of the move lower but we will continue to look for a close back above the Jpy101.60 level to confirm a break back above the 21-DMA and a shift in focus back to the Jpy102.30-90 region.
R 4: Jpy102.9 – High Apr 22
R 3: Jpy102.3 – High May 3
R 2: Jpy101.6 – High May 15
R 1: Jpy100.9 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: 99.25
S 1: Jpy98.08 – 100 day moving average
S 2: Jpy97.37 – Low May 23
S 3: Jpy96.95 – Low Apr 2
S 4: Jpy94.75 – Falling daily channel base
USD/KRW: The break above the Krw1125.5 level unfolded nicely for USD/KRW yesterday with the pair pausing ahead of the 200 WMA. We will continue to look at the May 21 low as initial support with a close below needed to relieve the immediate bullish pressure that is targeting a retest of the 2013 high. Overall back below the 200-DMA is needed to shift focus back to 2013 lows.
R 4: Krw1153.5 – High July 25 2012
R 3: Krw1147.2 – 2013 high Apr 8
R 2: Krw1133.4 – 200 week moving average
R 1: Krw1129.7 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
Latest price: 1124.5
S 1: Krw1110.5 – Low May 21
S 2: Krw1107.7 – 21 day moving average
S 3: Krw1105.0 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 4: Krw1099.6 – 200 day moving average
USD/SGD: Following the move to fresh trend highs again yesterday for USD/SGD the pair has managed a reasonably bearish close in NY that could be hinting at a deeper correcting back towards the Sgd1.2421-40 support region. The May 22 low remains the initial support and we will look for a close back below to signal that a correction is underway and see the immediate focus shift to Sgd1.2440. Overall while Sgd1.2579 supports we will target the 200-WMA.
R 4: Sgd1.2977 – 200 week moving average
R 3: Sgd1.2846 – High June 25 2012
R 2: Sgd1.2748 – High July 6 2012
R 1: Sgd1.2728 – High July 12-13 2012
Latest price: 1.2633
S 1: Sgd1.2579 – Low May 22
S 2: Sgd1.2507 – Low May 17
S 3: Sgd1.2440 – Low May 16
S 4: Sgd1.2421 – Low May 15