AUD/USD: After looking like we may have been ready for a correction the AUD/USD has again traded at fresh 10 month lows. The pair now needs to close back above the $0.9839 level to relieve the immediate bearish pressure that has the AUD/USD focused on a retest of the 2012 lows. Daily tech studies remain very oversold but are having little impact as the down trend remains firmly in
control. Back above the May 10 high is now needed to shift overall focus higher.
R 4: $1.0096 – High May 10
R 3: $1.0025 – High May 13
R 2: $0.9918 – High May 15
R 1: $0.9838 – High May 21
Latest price: 0.9690
S 1: $0.9667 – Low May 22
S 2: $0.9584 – 2012 Low June 1
S 3: $0.9488 – Low Oct 5 2011
S 4: $0.9397 – 2011 Low Oct 4 2011
NZD/USD: Following the bounce to start the week the Kiwi has again moved lower to retest the $0.8056 support from Nov 2012. A break lower will remain favoured while the May 21 high caps with a close above this level needed to relieve the immediate bearish pressure that has seen the Nov 16 low retested on 3 of the 4 last trading days. A move below the $0.8056 level sees immediate
focus ratchet lower to the $0.7813 low from July 25 2012.
R 4: $0.8356 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: $0.8317 – High May 13
R 2: $0.8288 – 200 day moving average
R 1: $0.8211 – High May 21
Latest price: 0.8063
S 1: $0.8056 – Low Nov 16 2012
S 2: $0.8027 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: $0.7917 – Low Sept 5 2012
S 4: $0.7813 – Low July 25 2012
AUD/JPY: The pair is now remaining capped at the 21-DMA on bounces but we will continue to look for a close back above the Jpy101.60 level to see focus shift higher. For now the immediate focus remains on the Apr 16 low with the Ichimoku cloud base noted just ahead. It is worthwhile noting that we have not had a close below the Ichimoku cloud base since Oct 2012 so such a move would
add weight to the bearish case.
R 4: Jpy102.9 – High Apr 22
R 3: Jpy102.3 – High May 3
R 2: Jpy101.6 – High May 15
R 1: Jpy101.1 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: 99.97
S 1: Jpy99.22 – Ichimoku cloud base
S 2: Jpy98.94 – Low Apr 16
S 3: Jpy97.99 – 100 day moving average
S 4: Jpy96.95 – Low Apr 2
USD/KRW: A bullish NY close after finding support ahead of the 21-DMA sees USD/KRW just short of the Apr 18 high. Layers of resistance remain in the Krw1125.5-1133.3 region including the Ichimoku cloud top and the 21 day upper Bollinger band, but while the 21-DMA remains as support a break higher remains favoured with overall focus on a retest of the 2013 highs. Back below the 200-DMA is needed to shift focus back to the Krw1077-1081 support region.
R 4: Krw1147.2 – 2013 high Apr 8
R 3: Krw1133.3 – 200 week moving average
R 2: Krw1128.4 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: Krw1125.5 – High Apr 18
Latest price: 1120.5
S 1: Krw1110.5 – Low May 21
S 2: Krw1107.2 – 21 day moving average
S 3: Krw1105.0 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 4: Krw1099.7 – 200 day moving average
USD/SGD: The cross has taken out and managed to close above the falling weekly channel top and as a result the overall focus has now shifted higher to the 200-WMA coming in around Sgd1.2977. We will now look for a close back below yesterday’s low to relieve the immediate bullish focus that now has the Sgd1.2728-48 region firmly in its sights. Overall the Sgd1.2421-40 support region remains key with a close below needed to shift focus back to 2013 lows.
R 4: Sgd1.2977 – 200 week moving average
R 3: Sgd1.2846 – High June 25 2012
R 2: Sgd1.2748 – High July 6 2012
R 1: Sgd1.2728 – High July 12-13 2012
Latest price: 1.2670
S 1: Sgd1.2579 – Low May 22
S 2: Sgd1.2507 – Low May 17
S 3: Sgd1.2440 – Low May 16
S 4: Sgd1.2421 – Low May 15