AUD/USD: The pair has finally managed a long overdue bounce and the first of any note since the fall from the $1.0382 level. The pair needs to close back above the May 15 high to confirm that a correction is underway with the focus then shifting to the $1.0096-1.0156 resistance region. Back above $1.0156 would confirm a break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ($1.0126) of the $1.0382-0.9713 move and see focus return to the $1.0350-00 region.
R 4: $1.0096 – High May 10
R 3: $1.0025 – High May 13
R 2: $0.9969 – 38.2% retracement of 1.0382-0.9713 move
R 1: $0.9918 – High May 15
Latest price: 0.9814
S 1: $0.9712 – Low June 5 2012
S 2: $0.9584 – 2012 Low June 1
S 3: $0.9488 – Low Oct 5 2011
S 4: $0.9397 – 2011 Low Oct 4 2011
NZD/USD: The bounce from Friday’s low, just short of the $0.8056 support, combined with the oversold daily momentum, RSI and slow stochastic studies, now see the immediate focus shift from fresh 2013 lows and back to the $0.8287-17 resistance region. We will look for a close above $0.8317 as confirmation of a break of the 200-DMA which is needed to hint at a bigger correction that sees layers of resistance in the $0.8356-86 region targeted
R 4: $0.8386 – 21 day moving average
R 3: $0.8356 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: $0.8317 – High May 13
R 1: $0.8287 – 200 day moving average
Latest price: 0.8174
S 1: $0.8056 – Low Nov 16 2012
S 2: $0.7917 – Low Sept 5 2012
S 3: $0.7813 – Low July 25 2012
S 4: $0.7748 – 200 week moving average
AUD/JPY: The cross is starting to look comfortable below the rising daily trend line with initial focus remaining on a test of the Apr 16 lows and the Ichimoku cloud base. The pair has not closed below the Ichimoku cloud base since Oct 2012. A close back above the May 15 high remains needed to see immediate focus return to the Apr 22 high, but while Jpy101.60 caps the overall focus remains on a move back to the Jpy92.50-00 region.
R 4: Jpy103.8 – High Apr 15
R 3: Jpy102.9 – High Apr 22
R 2: Jpy102.3 – High May 3
R 1: Jpy101.6 – High May 15
Latest price: 100.30
S 1: Jpy99.22 – Ichimoku cloud base
S 2: Jpy98.94 – Low Apr 16
S 3: Jpy97.81 – 100 day moving average
S 4: Jpy96.95 – Low Apr 2
USD/KRW: The pair is looking a little softer after having pulled back from ahead of Friday’s high and the Apr 18 resistance level to start the week. The May 15 low remains initial support and we will look for a close below to relieve the current bullish focus and increase the risk of a correction back to the 200-DMA.Overall while the 200-DMA continues to remain as support, the pair will target a retest of the 2013 high at Krw1147.2.
R 4: Krw1147.2 – 2013 high Apr 8
R 3: Krw1133.3 – 200 week moving average
R 2: Krw1128.8 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: Krw1125.5 – High Apr 18
Latest price: 1114.5
S 1: Krw1112.5 – Low 15 May
S 2: Krw1105.0 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 3: Krw1099.8 – 200 day moving average
S 4: Krw1081.6 – Low Feb 28
USD/SGD: The rate pulled back from the falling weekly channel top to start the new week. Daily momentum, RSI and slow stochastic studies are all very overbought and looking to correct and this could see the pair correct a little further back towards the key Sgd1.2421-40 support region, with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Sgd1.2268-1.2594 move noted at Sgd1.2431. Sgd1.2507 remains initial support with below confirming a correction is underway.
R 4: Sgd1.2846 – High June 25 2012
R 3: Sgd1.2748 – High July 6 2012
R 2: Sgd1.2644 – High July 25 2012
R 1: Sgd1.2626 – Falling weekly channel top
Latest price: 1.2545
S 1: Sgd1.2507 – Low May 17
S 2: Sgd1.2440 – Low May 16
S 3: Sgd1.2421 – Low May 15
S 4: Sgd1.2359 – Previous daily resistance now support