The two most frequently asked question over the last month are a) will the economy continue to slow after the weak Q1 GDP and b) why is the currency strengthening and will that continue with a weaker growth? Our conclusion is that growth will hit a soft patch from over-extended exports but will reaccelerate into 4Q to hit our 8.1% growth forecast for this year. The currency will continue its gradual appreciation from structural and cyclical factors. Below is why we think so.
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