Mid-Day FX Market Analysis

EUR – Closed in NY at $1.3073 after rate had recovered off pullback lows of $1.3053, having seen extended highs of $1.3122 earlier in the session. Rate came under further pressure in early Asia as Japanese exporters leaned into euro-yen, the sales taking euro-dollar to extended lows of $1.3044. Rate recovered to $1.3059, dipped to $1.3048 before picking up stronger demand interest which lifted it back to the NY close into Europe. Recovery continued through the European morning, though was left slightly behind of a stronger cable, Aussie, Kiwi and Cad move vs the US dollar, but eventually caught up to post highs at $1.3093 ($1.3092 61.8% $1.3122-1.3043). Weak talk suggested semi official sales off the highs though rate was left buoyed above $1.3080 in late morning trade. Yen plays via crosses again provided the main drive, good turnover seen in dollar-yen though looking at rates is hard to believe, with attention turning to US weekly jobless claims at 1230GMT to provide another influence. Offers seen now at $1.3100/10, more at $1.3122 with stops above. Support $1.3050/40.

GBP – Closed in NY at $1.5328 after rate had managed to recover off lows of $1.5294 to an eventual high of $1.5334 ahead of the close. Yen crosses were sold back in early Asia, led by euro-yen, which in turn, via sterling-yen, pressed cable to $1.5319. Buyers emerged into the dip, the demand allowing rate to climb through the session to $1.5333 ahead of Europe. Euro-sterling extended its recovery (off recent lows of stg0.8507) to retest recent highs at stg0.8560 Wednesday, but again met decent supply here. The rate was pressed back to stg0.8519 in NY ahead of the close at stg0.8527, with euro crosses again under pressure in Asia which saw rate extend move to stg0.8513 before buyers emerged to correct it back to the NY closing level. Cable dipped back to retest the overnight lows at $1.5319 in early Europe before it picked up stronger demand, the buying able to take rate through resistance at $1.5340/50, then the post NFP high at $1.5364 and on to $1.5378. Move was seen led by strong demand for ‘commonwealth’ dollars’ vs the big one , with the pound able to outpace the euro, which took euro-sterling to extended lows of stg0.8504. The pound was off best levels late morning, but was retaining a firm tone.

JPY – Dollar-yen slipped to test broken resistance at Y99.74 in early Tokyo (50% Y124.14-75.35), but managed to find demand that lifted it back to Y99.86. However, this move was met by exporter and macro sales which pressed the rate back to eventual lows of Y99.36, aided by reports of Asian institutional sales from the Y99.70 level. The dip again attracted buyers which lifted the rate back to Y99.65/70. Euro-yen was pressed back to Y129.71 after continuing its corrective pullback off Y130.54 which began late NY, later rising with the dollar to Y130.35. Risk appetite continued in early Europe, dollar-yen extended the slow grind to Y99.77 before meeting strong headwinds and easing lower, profit take sales added weight. Low print of Y99.56 was cushioned by support in the dip, before demand in the crosses aided recoveries. Governor Kuroda comments suggesting the BOJ may adjust policy before 2% target reached, pared gains, later settling in a narrow range ahead of NY. Euro-yen slipped to Y130.11 but found support ahead of Y130.00 bids, the cross lifted to Y130.49 with sharp moves in the aussie, kiwi and cable providing added momentum, later easing to Y130.30

 

EasyForexNews Research Team