Euro closed the NY session at 1.2882 yesterday which has been a key retracement level in our work; 1.2865 makes up the bottom of a major support zone and in between is the 200dma & Dec low. All this is to say that a close below 1.2865 eliminates what little support is left ahead of 1.2662. S/t, one possible Elliott count suggests that 5 waves down are coming to an end and the slope of the downtrend has slowed. BUT, there is no sign of a reversal via pattern or daily candles and EUR is still firmly entrenched in the February down channel. In order to promote the idea of a correction higher prices must better stiff resistance at 1.2965 then close the down gap at 1.30. Beyond those levels, the more critical down channel resistance stands at 1.3050. Levels: Support – 1.2865, 1.2844, 1.2662 Resistance – 1.2965, 1.3000, 1.3050
Nomura