Charts suggest short-term funding pressures are awakening once again. Euribor futures fell sharply within its range in place since last year. Although the market is far from posting a sustainable bearish sign, the downside risks for EUR/USD have increased. A close below the 200-day average near 1.2875 would confirm a deeper setback especially as some EUR crosses such as EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY remain under pressure. A systematic piece of evidence in the form of our online tool, TRENDS, also displays a favourable track record (since late 2004) for weakness for closes beneath the 200-day average.
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Barclays