AUD/USD: Another Failure Ahead Of The 61.8% Fibonacci Level. The pair has again failed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. We will continue to look for a close back below the Mar 18 lows to relieve the recent bullish pressure and see the pair retest the Mar 12 lows, with the 21-DMA now coming in just ahead at $1.0283. Topside a close above the $1.0414 level is needed to reconfirm the bullish focus with the $1.0457-77 resistance region then becoming the immediate focus.
RES 4: $1.0578 – Double Daily Top Jan 16 & 22
RES 3: $1.0477 – High Jan 30
RES 2: $1.0457 – High Feb 5
RES 1: $1.0414 – 61.8% retracement of $1.0598-1.0117 move
Latest price: 1.0367
SUP 1: $1.0346 – Low Mar 18
SUP 2: $1.0268 – Low Mar 12
SUP 3: $1.0205 – Low Mar 11
SUP 4: $1.0152 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
NZD/USD: Immediate Focus Remains Lower. The cross continues to fail ahead of initial resistance and while this is the case immediate focus remains on dips back towards the Dec 26 lows at $0.8157 with the 21 day lower Bollinger band also noted around this level today. Spikes below the lower Bollinger are expected to resume while the initial resistance remains in play although it should be noted that closes below are somewhat rare.
RES 4: $0.8416 – High Feb 25
RES 3: $0.8351 – High Feb 26
RES 2: $0.8322 – Ichimoku Cloud Base
RES 1: $0.8292 – High Mar 8
Latest price: 0.8240
SUP 1: $0.8157 – Low Dec 26
SUP 2: $0.8124 – 100 week moving average
SUP 3: $0.8056 – Monthly low Nov 16
SUP 4: $0.7917 – Monthly low Sept 5
AUD/JPY: Recent Topside Failure A Concern. Failure to retest the recent highs and again ahead of the psychological resistance level is seeing pressure return to initial support. A close below remains needed to relieve the bullish focus and see focus turn to retests of the key Jan 16 lows around Jpy92.50. Topside the Jpy100.00 level remains key with a close above then shifting focus to trading within a Jpy100-105 range.
RES 4: Jpy104.5 – 2008 high Jul 21
RES 3: Jpy100.7 – High Aug 5 2008
RES 2: Jpy100.0 – Psychological Resistance
RES 1: Jpy99.96 – 2013 high Mar 14
Latest price: 98.52
SUP 1: Jpy97.60 – Low Mar 18
SUP 2: Jpy96.84 – 21 day moving average
SUP 3: Jpy94.45 – Low Mar 1
SUP 4: Jpy92.50 – Low Jan 16
USD/KRW: Focus Remains On Krw1120-25 region. Consolidation above the 200-DMA continues as the pair hesitates a little ahead of recent fresh 5 month highs and we will continue to look for a close below the Mar 14 lows to signal a shift lower in focus. While support remains in play we continue to target retests of layers of resistance and the rising daily channel top noted in the Krw1120-25 region. Back below Mar 14 lows sees immediate focus return to the rising daily channel base.
RES 4: Krw1136.2 – 61.8% retracement of 1186.7-1054.5 move
RES 3: Krw1124.8 – Previous daily support now resistance
RES 2: Krw1120.6 – 50% retracement of 1186.7-1054.5 move
RES 1: Krw1117.4 – High Oct 11
Latest price: 1115.1
SUP 1: Krw1106.2 – 200 day moving average
SUP 2: Krw1101.7 – Low Mar 14
SUP 3: Krw1094.1 – Low Mar 12
SUP 4: Krw1090.1 – Rising daily channel base
USD/SGD: Rising Daily Channel Top Targeted. Despite overbought daily tech studies the pair has again bounced back towards initial resistance and recent 2013 highs. Overall focus remains topside with a test of the rising daily channel top targeted. The upper 21 day Bollinger band is again heading higher with spikes above expected to resume although overbought daily tech studies make closes above unlikely for now.
RES 4: Sgd1.2604 – Rising daily channel top
RES 3: Sgd1.2556 – High Aug 28
RES 2: Sgd1.2538 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: Sgd1.2527 – 2013 High Mar 14
Latest price: 1.2518
SUP 1: Sgd1.2424 – Low Mar 4
SUP 2: Sgd1.2334 – Low Jan 30
SUP 3: Sgd1.2309 – Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 4: Sgd1.2223 – Low Jan 11
EasyForexNews Research Team