The Dow Jones Transportation Average posted an all-time high, resuming the uptrend that began in Q4 12. While this suggests near-term upside, we expect the uptrend to become increasingly erratic, leading to a stronger pullback in March-April. For the time being, the move is likely catalyzing CHF weakness. Despite signs that the USD uptrend is faltering against other currencies (eg, the EUR and GBP in the short term), USD/CHF is well supported, and even GBP/CHF is threatening to stage a short squeeze.
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Barclays