Mid-Day FX Market Analysis

EUR – Closed in NY at $1.3396 after rate had been sold off to $1.33705 on market reaction to ECB Draghi comments mentioning recent euro strength. Early trade in Asia consolidated Thursday’s late moves between $1.3385/1.3400, dropped to mark lows at $1.3383 before edging to $1.3416, the move up aided by release of stronger than forecast Chinese trade data. Rate drifted off to $1.3394 before settling around $1.3400 into Europe. Rate came under fresh pressure into early Europe, quickly easing back below $1.3400 before extending intraday lows to $1.3381. Attention quickly switched to yen plays as market reacted to Japan FinMin Aso comments that recent yen weakening too fast, the drop in dollar-yen provided euro-dollar with a corrective boost, movie back above $1.3400 extending to $1.3427. However, trader reports had suggested that moves toward $1.3430 would provide a good short entry point, with sell interest here able to counter and slowly press rate back toward $1.3400 late morning. Several traders have highlighted the $1.3400 as a pivot level, which seems to be proving the case in morning trade. Bids $1.3380/70, $!.3355/50, stops below. Offers $1.3430, $1.3450/60.

GBP – Closed in NY Thursday at $1.5712 after rate had seen a volatile day as BOE Governor in wait Carney came across less dovish than market had positioned for. Rate had spiked to $1.5768 on opening headlines before drifting lower, the afternoon comments from ECB Draghi mentioning current euro strength adding to weight as cable tracked euro-dollar’s sharp sell off. Cable traded to a low of $1.5684 before recovering through the US afternoon into the close. Despite the move lower cable was seen trading with an underlying buoyant tone as euro-sterling broke lower, the cross pressed to lows of stg0.8516, having seen highs earlier in the day of stg0.86645 ahead of Carney comments. The recovery in cable continued into Asia, the rate marking early lows at $1.5706 before pushing on to $1.5738. Rate opened Europe around $1.5728 before edging higher, as euro-sterling, which had consolidated Thursday’s pullback between stg0.8516-33 in Asia, extended lows to stg0.8511. Cable touched $1.5755 before meeting offers at $1.5755/60. Rate corrected back to $1.5733 before retesting the $1.5755/60 area, extending highs to $1.5758. $1.5770 seen key to put a dent into rate’s recent negative tone.

JPY – Dollar-yen closed in NY Thursday at Y93.70 after recovering off pullback lows of Y93.08. This recovery slightly extended to Y93.74 in early Asia before momentum faltered, the rate slipped to session lows of Y93.20 as traders reported sales from fund names/short term accounts, a paring of spec longs ahead of the weekend also attributed to the move. The move lower aided euro-yen retaining an underlying soft tone, recovery off NY lows of Y124.50 capped by Y125.57 in Asia before rate slipped back to Y124.88. The yen pairs opened heavy in Europe, supply from leveraged names pressed dollar-yen through Y93.00, flushing stops on the move. Euro-yen tracked the dollar on Asian funds sales to Y124.10. Comments from FinMin Aso that said yen weakened more than intended in move from Y78.00-90.00 added further weight, dollar-yen printed Y92.17, euro-yen Y123.54 as a flurry of stops were targeted. Dip demand cushioned moves and the yen pairs bounced, extending recovery efforts to Y93.04 and Y124.89. Late profit take sales once again checked moves ahead of NY.

 

EasyForexNews Research Team