– USD lost ground, most Asian stocks rose at the start of the week
– Thailand’s GDP surprised strong
Flash PMIs due for euro zone, US, and China this week
– Greece in the spotlight again
What to watch for this week
EUR: Greek deadline. On the policy front, the main event of the week in Europe will be the Eurogroup meeting on Tuesday. Greece’s debt sustainability will be the main topic, and an agreement on this front would clear the way to Greece’s aid disbursement. This outcome would be supportive for risk appetite in the near term, in our view. Our economists view a positive outcome as the most likely outcome but warn that a disagreement and therefore a delay in aid disbursement is still possible. The Troika is also set to conclude its sixth review of Portugal this week and we expect a positive assessment. On the data front, we expect the flash November PMI to remain unchanged at a composite level at 45.7 on Thursday and note that markets are looking for an unchanged to slightly weaker reading for the German Ifo manufacturing on Friday. We continue to see potential for disappointment from both policy and data and remain short EURUSD in our recommended cash portfolio with a 1.23 target.
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Credit Suisse