– China PMIs rise in October, as did most other Asian PMIs
– Korean trade data stronger than expected in October
– UK PMI likely to ease, US ISM likely flat
What to watch for today
USD: Steady. We expect the reports generally to reinforce the theme of steady growth at subdued levels. Our forecasts call for an unchanged manufacturing ISM reading of 51.5, similar to the message from the Markit index last week. Today also brings the ADP employment change data for the month of October, and markets are looking for a 135.0K print, up from a downwardly revised 88.2K in September. Finally, markets are looking for an unchanged reading on jobless claims at 369K. In general, data in line with our estimates should be moderately supportive for risk sentiment and neutral US front-end rates. We continue to think risk-reward for tactical USDMXN shorts looks attractive heading into this week’s data.
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