AUD/USD: $1.0290 Support Seen As Pivotal. The close back below the 200-DMA to end last week doesn’t bode well for the current move higher but we continue to look for a close below the $1.0290 support as confirmation of a false break higher last week. Daily tech studies have corrected back to more neutral levels and are no longer seen as an issue. Below $1.0290 shifts focus back to the $1.0105-50 region.
RES 4: $1.0856 – 2012 high Feb 29
RES 3: $1.0624 – Monthly high Sept 14
RES 2: $1.0479 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.0411 – High Oct 18
LATEST PRICE: 1.0333
SUP 1: $1.0290 – Previous resistance now support
SUP 2: $1.0150 – Low Oct 8
SUP 3: $1.0138 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 4: $1.0105 – 50% retracement of $0.9584-$1.0624 move
NZD/USD: Daily Channel Base Key This Week. The rising daily channel base remains key for the pair this week with a close below the 200-DMA confirming a break lower and an end to the current uptrend. This then sees focus return to retests of the Sept monthly lows and ends hopes of a retest of the $0.8350-60 region. Topside a close above the 21-DMA is needed to relieve downside pressure.
RES 4: $0.8469 – 2012 high Feb 2012
RES 3: $0.8356 – Monthly high Sept 28
RES 2: $0.8264 – High Oct 5
RES 1: $0.8214 – 21 day moving average
LATEST PRICE: 0.8158
SUP 1: $0.8131 – Rising daily channel base off June 2 lows
SUP 2: $0.8083 – Double daily bottom Sept 10 & 11
SUP 3: $0.8077 – 200 day moving average
SUP 4: $0.8050 – 100 day moving average
AUD/JPY: Initial Support Seen As Pivotal. The falling daily channel top capped the break above the 200-DMA last week with initial support remaining at Jpy81.26 to start the new week. Back below Jpy81.26 is needed to relieve the current topside pressure and see focus turn to tests of the falling daily channel base coming in around Jpy78.88 today.
RES 4: Jpy84.81 – High Apr 13
RES 3: Jpy83.56 – Monthly high Aug 21
RES 2: Jpy83.10 – Monthly high Sept 14
RES 1: Jpy82.45 – Falling daily channel top from Aug 21 high
LATEST PRICE: 81.98
SUP 1: Jpy81.26 – Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 2: Jpy79.40- 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 3: Jpy78.88 – Falling daily channel base from Aug 21 high
SUP 4: Jpy78.10 – Low June 12
USD/KRW: 21-DMA Remains Initial Resistance. USD/KRW continues to test the 21 day lower Bollinger band (Krw1103.1) with fresh 2012 lows set last week. The 21-DMA is guiding the pair lower with a close above needed to relieve the immediate downside pressure. The Krw1124.8 level remains key resistance with overall potential for a test of falling daily channel base possible while Krw1124.8 caps.
RES 4: Krw1135.8 – 200 day moving average
RES 3: Krw1132.2 – Ichimoku cloud base
RES 2: Krw1124.8 – Previous key daily support now resistance
RES 1: Krw1112.7 – 21 day moving average
LATEST PRICE: 1103.6
SUP 1: Krw1102.7 – 2012 low Oct 18 2012
SUP 2: Krw1100.2 – Low Oct 31 2011
SUP 3: Krw1077.3 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: Krw1060.4 – Monthly low Sept 2
USD/SGD: Recovering A Little Lost Ground. After making fresh 2012 lows last week the pair is working its way back towards the initial resistance noted at Sgd1.2237 with a close above needed to relieve the current downside pressure and risk of fresh lows. Overall the Sgd1.2308-39 resistance region remains key topside with a close above needed to end the downtrend that has been in play since early June.
RES 4: Sgd1.2339 – High Sept 26
RES 3: Sgd1.2308 – Falling daily channel top from June 1 highs
RES 2: Sgd1.2265 – 21 day moving average
RES 1: Sgd1.2237 – High Oct 15
LATEST PRICE: 1.2213
SUP 1: Sgd1.2153 – 2012 low Sept 14 2012
SUP 2: Sgd1.2049 – Low Sept 6 2011
SUP 3: Sgd1.2020 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: Sgd1.2002 – Low Aug 16 2011
EasyForexNews Research Team