– Asian equities mixed, FX treading water
– MAS surprised hawkish: we have revised our USDSGD forecasts lower to 1.225 in three months and 1.210 in twelve months.
– We recommend buying 2m USDCAD topside seagulls and short USDBRL NDF
What to watch for today
USD: Confidence pullback. Our economists expect the preliminary September reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence indicator to stage a small pullback from 78.3 to 75.0, below consensus set at 78.0. We expect limited impact on price action, with the exception of CAD, which in our view is vulnerable to poor data surprises at current levels. We are long USDCAD in our derivatives model portfolio via two-month USDCAD topside seagulls.
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Credit Suisse