FX Market Analysis

EUR: Opened early Europe at $1.3129, Euro-dollar closed Friday in NY at $1.3130, having seen extended post FOMC react highs of $1.$1.31691, pulling back to challenge the $1.3100 area before recovering into the close. Rate opened in Asia at $1.3120, drifted off from an early high of $1.3130 on euro-yen supply to session lows of $1.3105. Move met decent demand interest linked to strong buys of euro-Aussie from a US name which lifted the rate to a high of $1.31409. Rate eased to $1.3121 before edging back to retest the earlier lows into early Europe. Recovery met sellers, prompted in part by reported comments from ECB officials that current rates appropriate. Rate squeezed below $1.31, the move meeting decent demand on approach to $1.3090, with two attempts getting rebuffed before it recovered to $1.3110 in late trade. Traders had reported that decent sized bids were seen in the area between $1.3990/80. Consolidation, with some paring back of Friday’s extended rally, was the main order of European morning trade, the Japanese holiday adding to ‘usual’ Monday quiet markets.

GBP: Opened early Europe at $1.6225, stg0.8092, Cable closed in NY Friday at $1.6217 having seen highs in the session of $1.6255 before finding support in the pullbacks between $1.6217/12. Opened in a Tokyo holiday thinned Asian session around $1.6222 with early demand lifting the rate to an overnight high of $1.6236 before settling between $1.6215/30 through the balance of the session. Euro-sterling consolidated Friday’s extended rally to stg0.8114 with trade through Asia contained by stg0.8081/0.80955. Cable came under pressure in Europe, the rate pressing to extended lows of $1.6212 as rate tracked euro-dollar’s heavier pullback, allowing in turn euro-sterling to extend its corrective pullback to stg0.8072. Cable bounced back in line with euro-dollar, edging to $1.6230 while the cross recovered back above stg0.8080. Trade in general was described as subdued, the Japanese holiday adding to the usual subdued Monday trading conditions.

JPY: Opened in early Europe around Y78.30 and Y102.80, Dollar-yen closed in NY Friday at Y78.39, close to traded highs of Y78.40 after yen continued to get squeezed lower on recovering US yields and a strong recovery in euro-yen. Rate saw early highs into a Japan holiday thinned market at Y78.47 before turning lower, the rate touching session lows at Y78.16 before meeting willing buyers. The rate began to recover, opening Europe around Y78.30 before ongoing demand lifted rate back toward the overnight highs. Rate was trading around Y78.42 ahead of the NY open. Euro-yen, which had seen highs of Y103.02 Friday, extended its corrective pullback to Y102.63 in early Asia before it managed to recover into early Europe to Y102.93. A general corrective pullback in the euro then weighed back to take rate back to Y102.60, recovering to Y102.88 ahead of the NY open. US Empire State data due at 1230GMT with any effect on US yields to determine yen direction. Exporter offers were reported to have been left at Y78.50/70, while on the downside stops were noted through Y78.05 and Y77.75.

 

EasyForexNews Research Team