– EURUSD traded above 1.30, AUDUSD towards 1.059
– We expect US retail sales and IP stronger than consensus
– We have revised our EURUSD three-month forecast higher to 1.23
What to watch for today
USD: Strong data. We expect US data to surprise to the upside today. Our economists expect retail sales to remain unchanged at 0.8%mom on both the headline and core, above consensus at 0.5%mom for both, a 0.6%mom reading on industrial production versus consensus for 0.1%mom and hold a 74.3 forecast for the preliminary September U-Mich consumer confidence indicator, up from 73.0 in August and consensus at 74.0. On the CPI front, we expect a slightly higher headline, but steady core at 0.2%mom. The extension of the FOMC’s policy guidance deadline to 2015 is likely to limit the impact of US data on front-end rates, in our view. This suggests that strong data are more likely to benefit currencies geared to global growth, rather than support the USD against other low-yielding currencies, such as EUR and JPY.
Click here to read the full report: FX Daily
Credit Suisse