FX Market Analysis

GBP: Opened early Europe at $1.5990, stg0.7993, GBP closed in NY Friday at $1.6010, the rate having been pressured to a high in this session of $1.6034 as the dollar was sold across the board following the release of weaker than forecast US NFP data (increasing speculation that this week’s FOMC may favour QE3). Rate edged to an early high in Asia at $1.6020 before turning lower, the move down influenced by euro-dollar’s break back under $1.28, the rate trading to a low of $1.5990 before settling between $1.5991/96 ahead of the European open. Euro-sterling, which had seen recovery highs of stg0.8004 Friday was contained through Asia between stg0.7988/98. Cable edged up to $1.6018 in Europe, the move tracking euro-dollar’s recovery, but as momentum faded rate drifted off, breaking below the overnight low at $1.5990 to extend intraday lows to $1.5980. Rate bounced back, as euro-sterling eased to stg0.79825 after its rejection from stg0.8000. Markets were described as generally subdued with attention on this week’s events in the Eurozone and the US FOMC announcement.

EUR: Opened early Europe at $1.2782, Euro-dollar closed in NY Friday at $1.2816, off session highs of $1.2818, seen as the dollar was sold off across the board following the release of weaker than expected US NFP data. Rate maintained levels above $1.2800 in early Asian trade Monday before getting squeezed below as market reacted to press reports that the Troika (which had returned to Athens Friday) had rejected some E2bln of proposed spending and revenue measures. This along with comments from Finland suggesting that granting Greece more time to cut its deficit would impose additional costs on Finland also weighed. Rate drifted to a low of $1.2781, recovery efforts were held below $1.2800 with rate resting on overnight lows into early Europe. Stops below $1.2780 were targeted into early Europe with rate easing off to extended lows of $1.2776 before bouncing back, the rate touching $1.2804 before easing off to touch fresh lows of $1.2773 late morning, holding heavy ahead of New York. Consolidation the morning play with German Constitutional Court decision and FOMC in focus.

JPY: Opened in early Europe around Y78.23 and Y99.99, USD/JPY closed in NY Friday at Y78.24, off lows of Y78.016 after rate had dropped back from Y78.90 as markets sold the dollar following release of weaker than expected US NFP data (knocked US yields with attention turning to this Thursday’s FOMC announcement). Trade through Asia was contained within a tight Y78.19/30 range, as it consolidated Friday’s move. Gotobi day demand at the Tokyo fix, along with release of softer than expected Japan GDP data acted to buoy the rate through Asia and into Europe. Euro-yen closed in NY at Y100.25, off lows at Y99.80, as rate was lifted by the stronger recovery in the euro. Rate opened Asia around Y100.16, moved up to Y100.27 before settling around Y100.00. This rate pulled in two directions with the euro remaining in favour, since last week’s ECB announcement on its bond buying plan, and awaiting FOMC Thursday for effect on US yields. Euro crosses traded with an underlying buoyant tone through the European morning, allowing dollar-yen to edge above overnight highs to Y78.33 into New York.

 

EasyForexNews Research Team