FX Market Analysis

GBP: Opened early Europe at $1.5862, stg0.7903, GBP closed in NY at $1.5872 after rate had eased off session highs of $1.5910, seen after a stronger than expected early release of UK services PMI data (was due to be released this morning). Rate tracked the early euro-dollar sell off into Asian dealing, cable dropping to lows of $1.5856 before recovering, meeting resistance back above $1.5870. Rate settled between $1.5858/68 through the Asian afternoon, trading around $1.5860 into Europe. Rate tracked the early Europe downside pressure on euro-dollar, but continued to meet decent demand around $1.5850. Rate touched a low of $1.5847 before bouncing to $1.5865 but renewed sell interest pressed rate back below $1.5850, this time finding no reserve bid interest which left stops exposed. Triggered stops took rate to extended lows of $1.5826 before fresh demand emerged. Rate had recovered to $1.5870 ahead of NY. Sterling traded with a slightly stronger tone than the euro, the cross spending most of the morning below stg0.7900.

EUR: Opened early Europe at $1.2537, Euro-dollar closed in NY at $1.2566, after rate had squeezed to lows of $1.2555, the move taking direction from slippage in the equity markets, recovering off the lows as Wall Street pared losses into the close. Stops were targeted into early Asia, a Swiss name a stand out seller of euro-dollar as it broke under $1.2550, with sales taking it down to lows of $1.25211. Move seen as stops in dollar-Swiss were triggered through Chf0.9570, and the barrier in Aussie-dollar at $1.0200 was also targeted and taken out. Rate recovered to $1.2543 but the underlying tone remained risk off with rate easing back to challenge freshly placed demand into $1.2525. Rate retained an underlying heavy tone into Europe, the release of softer than flash forecasts in Eurozone PMI service data taking the rate to extended lows of $1.2502 after further stops sub $1.2520 were triggered. Slow recovery but rate was able to nudge back above $1.2520 late morning as dip toward $1.2500 met short term reserve bids. Thursday’s ECB meeting remains the key focus.

JPY: Opened in early Europe at Y78.38 and Y98.25, sentiment returned in early Asia and dollar-yen lifted to Y78.45, extending gains through the Tokyo fix to Y78.54 on local name demand. Reported exporter supply capped and the dollar paired gains to settle in a tight trading range amid light flow. Late euro-dollar sales weighed and the rate slipped to Y78.37. Dollar-yen traded a narrow Y78.36-45 range in Europe with very little action to excite the pair. Support seen at Y78.20/15, ahead of semi-official bids at Y78.10/00. Reported offers at Y78.50/55, stronger behind at Y78.60 with stops set. Euro-yen opened flat in Asia and sat heavy, a stop hunt in euro-dollar weighed and the rate printed 98.24, before dip demand lifted to Y98.40. Recovery attempts were seen shallow and a fresh wave of supply pressed to Y98.18. The cross continued soft and ground lower on mixed flash PMI services data across the eurozone, fresh euro-dollar sales flushed stops to print Y97.98, before a decent recovery led the pair back to Y98.25 ahead of NY.

 

EasyForexNews Research Team