FX Market Analysis

EUR: Opened early Europe at $1.2556, Euro-dollar closed in NY at $1.2563, off NY rally highs of $1.2590, with traders noting that a large offer was taken out at this level. Rate initially edged up to mark session highs into early Asian dealing at $1.2568 before turning lower, touched $1.2553 before settling around $1.2560 for the balance of the session with attention on this morning’s Greek PM Samaras/German Chancellor Merkel meeting in Berlin at 0945GMT, press conference 1100GMT (though most don’t expect much to be announced, just reference to September’s Troika Report). Rate came under pressure into early Europe, the break below $1.2550, then reports of semi official supply seen at $1.2549, adding weight that took rate down to $1.2527. However, buyers quickly emerged into the dip with rate recovering to $1.2554 by late morning, in an otherwise lacklustre trading session. The mentioned Samaras/Merkel meeting and US durable goods data this afternoon in focus, with possible position adjustments to be seen ahead of the long UK weekend.

JPY: Opened in early Europe at Y78.59 and Y98.73, opened in Asia at Y78.50 and lifted with the cross to Y78.60 as trade volume remained light, supply met and the rate pared losses ahead of the Tokyo fix. The dollar bounced and aided by strong Japanese importer demand printed highs of Y78.68, before profit take sales from trading accounts eased to settle in a tight range. Euro-yen largely mirrored the dollar move and traded a narrow range of Y98.56 – Y98.83. Early demand from Japanese names boosted sentiment in early European trade and dollar-yen advanced to Y78.71. The rate stalled and pared gains on reported euro-dollar semi-official supply to Y78.60, extending losses to Y78.54 ahead of NY. Support seen at Y78.46 (Asia low), ahead of bids at Y78.30. Euro-yen opened flat and range traded, before slipping on the earlier mentioned semi-official through the overnight low to Y98.46. Rate bounced to Y98.52 but recovery attempts seen shallow ahead of the NY open. Reported bids at Y98.30/25, stronger behind at Y98.20.

 

EasyForexNews Research Team